Talks between American and Russian delegations have commenced in Istanbul, marking the first significant negotiations since the meeting in Riyadh between foreign ministers and national security advisers of both nations.
While the Riyadh discussions were not classified as formal negotiations by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, they served as an attempt to assess whether meaningful diplomatic engagements were feasible.
In an interview with Breitbart, Rubio stated that US representatives aimed to determine whether Russia was genuinely interested in peace or merely persisting with its maximalist demands, which Washington is unwilling to accept.
The days following the Riyadh meeting indicated that Moscow remains committed to its rigid stance. This position has been consistently reinforced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, among other officials involved in the negotiation process.
Lavrov recently reiterated that a ceasefire along the current front lines was not an option due to constitutional constraints, further solidifying Russia’s objective of controlling Ukrainian territories such as Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk without military engagement.
This approach, based on constitutional decrees rather than international law, underscores Russia’s disregard for diplomatic agreements, even those involving the United States.
Talks Proceed Under Moscow’s Terms
The negotiations in Istanbul are unfolding largely on Russia’s terms, reflecting a pattern in recent US-Russia diplomatic exchanges.
US President Donald Trump had previously announced the possibility of further meetings between American and Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia, but such an event did not materialise. Instead, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov dismissed those claims, stating that discussions would continue in a different format over the coming weeks.
A key topic of the Istanbul talks is the re-establishment of fully operational embassies in Washington and Moscow. This is an area where Putin has a vested interest, as it could facilitate intelligence operations on US soil, reminiscent of the Cold War era.
The Russian leadership is aware that Trump’s inclination towards negotiation creates an opportunity to restore diplomatic presence in the US, which could be leveraged for espionage and other covert activities.
Under President Barack Obama’s administration, Russian intelligence operations faced significant setbacks, but a restored embassy in Washington with an expanded staff—including members of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) and Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR)—could reinvigorate Moscow’s clandestine efforts.
Implications for Ukraine and the US
While diplomatic overtures continue, Putin’s focus remains on halting US military aid to Ukraine rather than seeking an immediate ceasefire. By engaging Trump in prolonged discussions, Moscow hopes to create a delay in American assistance, allowing Russian forces to gain further territorial advantages in Ukraine.
If negotiations eventually reach a stage where ceasefire terms are discussed, Russia would prefer to negotiate from a more advantageous position on the battlefield.
Putin and his inner circle frequently refer to peace negotiations that would reflect ‘realities on the ground,’ a phrase signalling their intent to expand territorial control before any formal agreements are made.
This strategy underscores Russia’s broader ambition of consolidating its hold over Ukraine and, in an ideal scenario, achieving total control over the country.
The Challenge for Washington
The question remains whether the current US administration can fully grasp Russia’s long-term objectives and respond accordingly. Trump has often operated within his own strategic framework, which does not always align with the geopolitical realities facing Europe and Ukraine.
His expressed interest in reviving economic ties with Russia could serve as a leverage point for Putin, drawing the US into negotiations that ultimately benefit Moscow.
Whether Trump can resist this dynamic or becomes ensnared in Russia’s broader geopolitical strategy remains uncertain.
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