A new economic study has cast doubt on the widely reported figures concerning US aid to Ukraine, suggesting that the real value of assistance delivered is significantly lower than official claims.
The research, conducted by Economists for Ukraine in collaboration with academics from UC Berkeley and other institutions, estimates that the total aid received by Ukraine over the past three years stands at $50.9 billion—a figure markedly lower than the $100 billion frequently cited in public discourse.
According to the study, the most significant discrepancy lies in military assistance. While US government reports place the total military aid at $65.9 billion, researchers argue that the actual value amounts to only $18.3 billion.
Much of this discrepancy arises from the way military equipment is valued. The US Department of Defense (DoD) initially estimated that the equipment transferred to Ukraine was worth $31 billion, but independent analysis suggests that its real worth is only $12.5 billion.
A substantial proportion of the weapons and munitions sent were surplus stock, some of which were obsolete or no longer in use by the US military.
When depreciation, battlefield failure rates, and limited operational lifespan are factored in, the true value of these weapons is significantly lower than their official accounting cost.
Another factor contributing to the disparity in figures is the structure of financial aid. Ukraine has received $32.6 billion in budgetary support, but this has not taken the form of direct cash transfers.
Instead, the funds have been channeled through the World Bank, operating as a reimbursement mechanism for specific expenses such as public sector salaries, pensions, and healthcare costs.
The study highlights that Ukraine’s electronic governance system (Diia) allows for precise tracking of these expenditures, ensuring transparency down to the level of individual transactions.
The researchers also emphasise that not all aid categorised as “Ukraine assistance” has actually reached Ukraine. The US has invested approximately $20 billion in Poland’s defence sector, but only $340 million of that has directly benefited Ukraine.
Additionally, Washington allocated $12.1 billion for new military procurement, but delays in deliveries and restrictions on what Ukraine can receive have significantly reduced its immediate impact.
The study estimates that the actual value of this new equipment for Ukraine is closer to $5.5 billion, rather than the full appropriated amount.
Loans and financial guarantees also play a significant role in the US aid structure. Roughly 25% of US military assistance has been provided in the form of loans, meaning that Ukraine is expected to repay a significant portion of what is often publicly referred to as “aid.”
Moreover, the US has used $1.6 billion in frozen Russian assets to collateralise approximately $25 billion in loans for Ukraine and Moldova. These loans, issued primarily through the World Bank, are standard debt instruments rather than outright grants and should not be included in calculations of non-repayable assistance.
The study also provides insight into the overall financial burden of supporting Ukraine from the US perspective. It estimates that annual US spending on Ukraine aid has been approximately $17 billion, accounting for just 0.25% of the total US federal budget. To put this in perspective, this amount is comparable to the cost of maintaining and powering federal government buildings.
Furthermore, the study challenges the narrative that the US has been Ukraine’s largest supporter. Europe, including the EU and the UK, has provided more aid overall than the United States, with military contributions at a comparable level. Given the similar economic size of the US and Europe, this suggests that Washington’s level of engagement is not disproportionately high compared to its allies.
Transparency and accountability in Ukraine’s handling of US aid were also assessed. The study highlights that Ukraine has undergone extensive audits and has demonstrated a high degree of financial oversight.
The Diia system allows for real-time tracking of every transaction, from public sector salaries to minor procurement expenditures. These audits have found no evidence of corruption or mismanagement related to US funds, countering concerns that American taxpayer money is being misused.
The findings of this study provide the first independent quantitative economic estimate of the actual value of US non-debt assistance to Ukraine, placing it at $50.9 billion over three years.
The analysis challenges common misconceptions about the scale and cost of US aid, highlighting how official figures often significantly overstate the real economic value of assistance.
While US support has been essential for Ukraine’s defence, the researchers stress the importance of a more precise understanding of what has been delivered, how it has been allocated, and its real financial implications.
