Recent diplomatic activity between the United States and Russia has raised concerns in Ukraine and Europe. Beginning with phone calls from President Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin and later to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, these initiatives appear to signal an effort to accelerate an end to the war started by Russia against Ukraine.
However, Kyiv has effectively been sidelined in these discussions, prompting comparisons with the 1938 Munich Agreement, when the fate of Czechoslovakia was decided without its participation.
Against this backdrop, European leaders have urgently convened a summit to formulate a unified position to protect their interests. Meanwhile, in Riyadh, senior US and Russian officials have held bilateral talks. However, the Ukrainian government has already dismissed these negotiations as futile, arguing that any decisions taken without Ukraine’s involvement lack legitimacy.
Ukraine’s Fears: Lessons from History
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has strongly opposed the notion of resolving the war without Ukrainian representation. The parallels to the Munich Agreement are clear: in 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Premier Édouard Daladier, alongside Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini, dictated the fate of Czechoslovakia while its representatives waited outside the meeting room.
The current situation is further complicated by ideological differences between Kyiv and Washington. The new Trump administration, particularly figures such as Vice President JD Vance, adheres to right-wing views that have raised alarm in Europe. Their approach is seen as a departure from traditional democratic principles, increasing tensions with US allies.
Three “Humiliations” for the US in Diplomacy
The US-led initiative to engage with Russia has resulted in a series of diplomatic moves that Kyiv views as significant concessions to Moscow:
- Donald Trump was the first to call Vladimir Putin, breaking with the policy of avoiding high-level engagement with an aggressor state.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio initiated contact with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
- The US proposed direct talks between Rubio and Russian officials, including Lavrov and Yuri Ushakov.
These steps raise critical questions: how far is the Trump administration willing to go in its negotiations with the Kremlin, and what will this mean for America’s allies?
Russia’s Position: No Concessions
Trump’s suggestion of a ceasefire was immediately rejected by Putin. Lavrov subsequently reinforced Moscow’s position, stating that Russia is not interested in any peace agreement that would allow Ukraine to rearm. Effectively, the Kremlin aims to continue the war while engaging in negotiations, ensuring that the conflict remains on its terms.
Ukraine has warned that such an approach could drag Trump into the war, making him an unwitting accomplice. Any meeting between the two leaders could coincide with Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv or Odesa, reinforcing the perception that the US president is complicit in Moscow’s aggression.
The Political Landscape: Europe and Britain Take a Stand
Concerned by the shift in US policy, the European Union has swiftly convened an emergency summit, initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Notably, this marks a rare instance where Britain is aligning more closely with Europe than with the United States.
One of the key questions to be addressed at the summit is how to force Putin to make concessions. So far, the Trump administration has failed to provide a clear answer. At a recent press conference, the US Secretary of Defence avoided the question of what compromises Moscow might be willing to consider, reinforcing the impression that Washington lacks a coherent strategy for pressuring the Kremlin.
The Outlook: Who Gains the Advantage?
From Kyiv’s perspective, Trump’s current diplomatic approach is playing into Russia’s hands. By offering Moscow high-level engagement without extracting any concessions, Putin has strengthened his position while giving nothing in return. This has already contributed to growing tensions between the US and its European allies.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their defence, undeterred by diplomatic manoeuvres that exclude them. The outcome of this latest phase of diplomacy remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Ukraine is determined to defend its sovereignty and prevent a repeat of past historical mistakes.
