The prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent ripples through the European Union (EU), reigniting debates over transatlantic relations, sanctions on Russia, and energy policy. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has once again positioned himself as a contrarian voice within the EU, leveraging Trump’s potential presidency to challenge the bloc’s cohesion on key issues, notably its approach to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.
Orbán’s Obstruction on Sanctions
Since the start of the Ukraine war, the EU has maintained a united front, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen repeatedly affirming unwavering support for Kyiv. This has included military aid and 15 rounds of sanctions against Russia, which require unanimous approval from all 27 member states. However, Orbán’s resistance to renewing these sanctions has introduced a significant complication.
Orbán has reportedly signalled that Hungary will block the sanctions rollover until Trump’s inauguration. This stance creates a precarious situation for the EU, as the deadline for renewing the sanctions comes just 11 days after Trump’s anticipated return to power. Such a delay could disrupt the EU’s ability to maintain economic pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine.
Orbán’s manoeuvre highlights Hungary’s role as a critical swing vote, underscoring the challenges the EU faces in balancing unity with its members’ divergent priorities.
Trump’s Energy Ultimatum
Trump, meanwhile, has made his intentions towards the EU clear via his social media platform, Truth Social. In a recent post, he demanded that the EU address its trade deficit with the United States by significantly increasing purchases of American oil and gas, warning of tariffs otherwise.
This rhetoric is consistent with Trump’s previous approach to trade negotiations, which often relied on high-stakes gambits. However, his message raises concerns in Europe about the direction of transatlantic relations under a second Trump presidency.
The EU has already ramped up imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) since the start of the Ukraine war, spurred by the need to reduce reliance on Russian energy. Infrastructure improvements, such as floating regasification units in northern Germany, have facilitated this shift. However, Trump’s demands could strain the EU’s energy policy further, especially as the bloc grapples with volatile energy markets and ongoing inflation.
EU Leaders in “Wait-and-See” Mode
European leaders have largely refrained from commenting on how they plan to engage with a second Trump administration. This cautious approach reflects uncertainty over Trump’s policy priorities and the potential impact on EU-U.S. relations.
Questions also linger over who Trump is engaging with in the EU, as his dealings with individual leaders could shape the dynamics of negotiations. This uncertainty, combined with Orbán’s disruptive tactics, has left the EU in a reactive posture rather than a proactive one.
Implications for Ukraine
The EU’s focus on Ukraine has been unwavering in rhetoric, but there is growing concern over the bloc’s ability to sustain military and economic aid. As von der Leyen reiterated support for Ukraine, doubts persist about whether EU leaders can overcome internal divisions and logistical hurdles to deliver on their promises.
Trump’s stance on Ukraine remains a wildcard. During his first term, he was criticised for his transactional approach to foreign policy, and his return could complicate the EU’s efforts to maintain a unified strategy on the conflict.
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