President Donald Trump has urged US citizens and citizens of allied countries to leave Iran, while publicly encouraging Iranian protesters to “take over” state institutions and promising that “help is on its way”, as the White House weighs a response to escalating unrest and a widening crackdown.
In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, 13 January, Trump wrote: “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! … I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” Trump did not specify what assistance would involve.
The US warning to its citizens was issued through the US Virtual Embassy Iran, which said Americans should “leave Iran now”, expect continued internet outages, and plan alternative means of communication. In a separate advisory on land crossings, the Virtual Embassy said some border routes remained open, while urging citizens to leave only if they believed it was safe to do so.
Iran has imposed severe communications restrictions since early January, limiting the flow of verifiable information. Reuters has reported near-total internet disruption during the blackout and intermittent connectivity, including through satellite services used despite Iranian bans.
Reports of the death toll vary sharply. Reuters cited an Iranian official putting deaths at around 2,000, including members of the security forces. Rights groups have published lower and higher estimates, while exiled opposition-linked outlets and some international media have carried far higher figures, including claims of up to 12,000 deaths; these numbers cannot be independently verified under current conditions.
Alongside his message to protesters, Trump has announced a 25 per cent tariff aimed at countries that do business with Iran. Reuters reported that he said the tariff would apply to products from any nation engaging in trade with Iran, but the administration has not published details on scope, timing mechanisms, or enforcement.
Markets have responded to the prospect of disruption. Reuters reported that oil prices extended gains on Tuesday amid concern that escalating unrest in Iran and possible US action could affect supply, adding a geopolitical risk premium. Gulf states have privately cautioned against further destabilisation. A Wall Street Journal report, cited by other outlets, said some Gulf governments warned the White House that pursuing the overthrow of Iran’s leadership could unsettle the oil market and feed back into the US economy.
The domestic US political context is also relevant. The next US federal elections are the midterms scheduled for 3 November 2026, and the administration is operating against the backdrop of concerns about energy prices and inflation.
Within the Trump administration, officials have debated whether to prioritise diplomacy or force. Reuters reported that Vice President JD Vance and other officials urged Trump to try diplomacy before strikes, while the Pentagon prepared a range of options. Trump has previously said the United States would respond if Iranian security forces opened fire on protesters; Reuters reported that the President said he and the US military were weighing “strong options”.
One indication of widening US engagement is the opening of contacts with an opposition figure abroad. Axios reported that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met secretly over the weekend with Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s former crown prince living in exile, to discuss the protests. Axios described it as the first high-level meeting between the Trump administration and the Iranian opposition since the demonstrations began, and said Pahlavi was positioning himself as a possible transitional figure if the regime falls.
Israel has sought to dampen speculation about its role while raising readiness. Israeli military spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin warned of “many rumours” about Iran and said the protests were an internal Iranian matter, while confirming heightened preparedness for “surprise scenarios”.
The current crisis follows direct US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during the June 2025 Iran–Israel conflict. Reuters reported at the time that US forces struck key nuclear facilities including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, with B-2 bombers involved. Analysts have noted that such strikes degraded specific capabilities but did not resolve internal political questions inside Iran, where security forces have since intensified repression.
Iran’s leadership has warned that any US attack would draw retaliation. Reuters reported that parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said US action would make Israel and regional US bases “legitimate targets”.
Russia has moved to support Tehran politically, urging Washington not to intervene. Reuters reported that Moscow called US threats of new strikes “categorically unacceptable”, condemned what it described as “subversive external interference”, and warned of serious consequences for regional and global security if unrest were used as a pretext for renewed aggression.
European governments have also sharpened their response, but through sanctions rather than military signals. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would “swiftly” propose further sanctions targeting those responsible for repression. In London, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned the killing of protesters, said the Iranian ambassador had been summoned, and announced legislation for expanded sanctions and sectoral measures.
With communications restricted inside Iran and casualty figures disputed, the next clear indicators are expected to be US decisions on whether to act beyond tariffs and messaging, and how Iran and its regional rivals position themselves if Washington moves towards limited stand-off strikes.
