The Syrian province of Latakia has become the latest battleground in the country’s long-running civil war.
In recent days, intense clashes have erupted between Alawite groups loyal to former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and forces aligned with the new Islamist regime.
The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitoring group, reported that more than 70 people have been killed.
These hostilities mark a significant escalation in the power struggle that has persisted since the fall of Assad’s government in late 2024.
Latakia, a coastal province with a predominantly Alawite population, has long been a stronghold of the Assad regime.
The Alawites, a minority Shia sect, have dominated Syria’s military and intelligence apparatus for decades. Their control was cemented under Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, who led Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000.
However, with the collapse of Assad’s rule, Alawite factions now face the prospect of persecution under the new Islamist administration led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Fragmented Syria and the Role of Foreign Powers
Syria remains a fractured state, divided into various enclaves controlled by different factions. The new government, established after HTS forces captured Damascus in late 2024, has struggled to assert control over the entire country.
Various regions are still controlled by Kurdish militias, Druze groups, and other local forces. Meanwhile, the remnants of Assad’s loyalists, mainly based in Latakia, have launched a resistance campaign against HTS, fearing a violent purge.
Complicating the situation further is the presence of international actors. Turkey, the dominant foreign player in Syria, has expanded its influence in the north, supporting factions opposed to Kurdish forces and maintaining military outposts.
The United States, which previously backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has largely withdrawn from active involvement in Syria, shifting its focus to other global priorities.
Iran, once a major supporter of Assad, saw its influence wane following his fall. Iranian-backed militias and Hezbollah forces were forced to retreat into Lebanon and Iraq.
However, Tehran is now reportedly attempting to re-establish its presence in Syria, possibly through newly formed Alawite resistance groups.
Russia’s Diminishing Role and the Fate of Its Military Bases
Russia, which maintained a significant military presence in Syria during the Assad era, has also been affected by the recent power shifts.
The Russian airbase in Hmeimim and the naval facility in Tartus were initially isolated following the rise of HTS. Unlike past conflicts where these bases were used to launch airstrikes against Assad’s opponents, Moscow is now engaged in negotiations over their status.
The new Syrian authorities have reportedly allowed Russian forces to remain in Tartus under the condition that Moscow acknowledges its past role in war crimes committed during Assad’s rule.
Furthermore, there is speculation that Russia may support an autonomous Alawite enclave in Latakia as a way to preserve its influence in Syria.
Israel’s Strategic Concerns and Buffer Zone Expansion
The renewed instability in Syria has also drawn attention to Israel’s role in the region. In recent months, Israel has expanded its control over a buffer zone along the Syrian border, a move aimed at preventing the spillover of violence into Israeli territory.
The Israeli government views Syria as an unpredictable and unstable entity, composed of various warring factions. By securing a buffer zone, Israel seeks to insulate itself from the broader regional turmoil.
There are also reports that Israel is considering providing military support to Kurdish and Druze groups opposed to the new Islamist regime.
Kurdish-led SDF forces have already expressed willingness to cooperate with Israel if such support materialises.
This could further complicate the geopolitical landscape in Syria, potentially leading to direct confrontations between Turkish-backed forces and Kurdish-Israeli aligned factions.
Growing Tensions Between Turkey and Iran
The current situation in Syria has also intensified tensions between Turkey and Iran. Turkish officials have openly criticised Iran’s continued attempts to establish proxy militias in the region.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently stated that Iran should cease its efforts to expand its influence in the Middle East and focus on domestic issues instead. This led to a diplomatic dispute, with Iran summoning Turkey’s ambassador to protest the remarks.
Syria remains a key area of competition between the two regional powers. Turkey has strengthened its position through its support for HTS and its ongoing military presence in northern Syria. Iran, on the other hand, is seeking to revive its influence by backing Alawite resistance groups and re-establishing ties with remnants of Assad’s loyalists.
Future Prospects: Continued Instability
The latest escalation in Syria highlights the continued fragmentation of the country. The prospect of a unified Syrian state under HTS remains highly unlikely, given the deep divisions and external interventions.
The Alawite resistance in Latakia, combined with the growing assertiveness of Turkey and Iran, suggests that Syria will remain a battleground for competing regional and international interests.
For now, the conflict appears to be entering a new phase, with former Assad loyalists attempting to carve out an autonomous enclave in Latakia while HTS seeks to consolidate its rule.
Meanwhile, external players, including Turkey, Iran, and Israel, will continue to influence the situation, each pursuing their own strategic objectives.
As Syria’s war enters its fourteenth year, there is little indication that stability will return in the foreseeable future. Instead, the country remains a patchwork of competing factions, a reflection of the broader power struggles shaping the Middle East.
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