NATO officials have expressed concern over the growing threat of non-conventional attacks by Russia on member states, warning of potential significant casualties and economic losses. The warning comes amidst heightened tensions and increased incidents of hybrid warfare across Europe and North America.
Emerging Risks of Hybrid Attacks
James Appathurai, NATO’s Deputy Assistant Secretary-General for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber Technologies, stated in an interview with Sky News that the Alliance faces an escalating risk of hybrid attacks, including sabotage and arson. These attacks, while often operating in a so-called “grey zone” below the threshold of formal warfare, have reached levels deemed unacceptable just a few years ago.
“There is a real prospect that a hybrid attack by Russia could lead to significant casualties or severe economic damage,” Appathurai said.
He highlighted that NATO must prepare for scenarios where such attacks might provoke collective defence measures under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.
Increased Hybrid Operations
The frequency and intensity of hybrid activities attributed to Russia have surged since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Appathurai detailed incidents such as the severing of critical undersea communication cables, sabotage targeting infrastructure, and the placement of incendiary devices in aviation cargo.
“Since 2022, there have been dozens, potentially up to 100, such incidents,” he said, adding that NATO has also disrupted numerous plots before they could materialise.
Strategic Responses and Challenges
Appathurai’s team is leading efforts to update NATO’s hybrid warfare strategy, last revised in 2015. The new approach will include contingency plans for a broader range of hybrid threats from Russia and other adversaries, including China, Iran, and North Korea. The updated policy, expected to be adopted at the 2025 NATO summit, aims to enhance deterrence while carefully managing the risk of escalation.
A significant focus is on establishing a shared understanding among member states and with adversaries regarding what level of hybrid aggression would warrant a military response. “We don’t want to find ourselves unprepared when one of these attacks crosses a major threshold,” Appathurai warned.
Recent Incidents Highlight Threat
Recent incidents in the Baltic Sea underline the severity of the threat. Finnish authorities are investigating potential Russian involvement in the damage to electrical cables connecting Finland and Estonia. Similar disruptions have affected telecommunications cables linking Finland with Estonia and Germany.
Following these incidents, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced an increased Alliance presence in the Baltic Sea, underscoring NATO’s commitment to safeguarding critical infrastructure.
