With increasing reports of Russian sabotage targeting undersea cables in the Gulf of Finland, the strategic calculus in the region is shifting dramatically.
The militaries of Estonia and Finland, neighbouring nations with shared concerns over Russian aggression, are developing a joint contingency plan to potentially close the Gulf of Finland to Russian ships. Such an action would have profound geopolitical and military implications, effectively isolating Saint Petersburg and crippling Russia’s access to the Baltic Sea.
Estonian Defence Forces (EDF) Commander Maj. Gen. Andrus Merilo has emphasised that cooperation between Finland and Estonia is reaching new heights, particularly in maritime defense.
Speaking to Finland’s Helsingin Sanomat newspaper, Merilo highlighted the goal of establishing robust, actionable plans to counter adversary activities in the Baltic Sea. “Maritime defence is an area where cooperation between Finland and Estonia is set to increase, and we may be able to make more concrete plans on how, if necessary, we can completely block adversary activities in the Baltic Sea, literally speaking. Militarily, this is achievable, we are ready for it, and we are moving in that direction,” Merilo stated.
A Growing Threat in the Baltic
The Gulf of Finland, a narrow stretch of water flanked by Finland to the north and Estonia to the south, has always been a critical maritime route. For Russia, it serves as a vital connection from Saint Petersburg to the Baltic Sea and beyond. However, repeated acts of sabotage against undersea cables, allegedly orchestrated by Russia, have heightened tensions in the region. These incidents underline the vulnerability of critical infrastructure and raise questions about the appropriate response to such provocations.
Estonia and Finland’s joint efforts to bolster maritime defense are rooted in the recognition that the Gulf’s strategic importance makes it a potential flashpoint. Closing the Gulf of Finland to Russian ships, should the need arise, would not only serve as a defensive measure but also as a decisive strategic move. According to Merilo, the decision to implement such a blockade would depend on the prevailing security situation. “If there is a threat and it is necessary, we are ready to do it to protect ourselves,” he affirmed.
Building Maritime Capabilities
The groundwork for such a decisive strategy has been years in the making. In 2022, Estonia laid out plans to expand its navy, investing in critical assets such as sea mines and long-range Blue Spear anti-ship missiles. These investments aim to enhance Estonia’s ability to secure its maritime borders and counter any potential threats in the Baltic Sea.
Former EDF Commander Gen. Martin Herem also addressed the importance of maritime defense, stating that blocking the Gulf of Finland could sever the connection between Saint Petersburg and Kaliningrad if necessary. “In the coming years, it would be possible to block the Gulf of Finland and obstruct the connection between St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad,” Herem noted in 2022.
Such a strategy would effectively neutralise Russia’s Baltic Fleet, reducing its capacity to project power and disrupt the security of Baltic nations.
The broader Baltic Sea region is also aligning its strategies to counter Russian threats. Poland, for instance, has adopted a long-range approach to maritime defense, focusing on neutralizing Russian naval assets.
In July 2023, former Polish defence chief General Andrzejczak posed a critical question: “Why let the Russians cause trouble in the Baltic Sea when we can destroy their ships from a distance or trap them in their home ports?” This perspective has resonated across Baltic nations, with collective investments in anti-ship missiles and other capabilities aimed at limiting Russian naval activities.
Strategic Implications of a Blockade
Closing the Gulf of Finland to Russian ships would have far-reaching consequences. Militarily, it would effectively neuter Saint Petersburg’s maritime access, turning the city into a geopolitical dead end. Such a move would also send a strong signal to Moscow about the unity and resolve of NATO-aligned and partner nations in the region.
However, implementing a blockade would not come without risks. It would likely provoke a sharp response from Russia, potentially escalating into broader conflict. The legal and diplomatic challenges of such a move would also require careful navigation to ensure compliance with international law and maintain the support of global allies.
Despite these challenges, Estonia and Finland’s readiness to take decisive action reflects the shifting security dynamics in the Baltic region. As Maj. Gen. Merilo noted, “We are ready for it, and we are moving in that direction.” The investments in maritime defence and the growing cooperation between Baltic nations confirm their commitment to safeguarding regional stability.
Estonia and Finland’s plans to potentially close the Gulf represent a bold and calculated response. While such a move would carry significant risks, it also underlines the resolve of Baltic nations to defend their sovereignty and ensure the security of their shared waters. As the situation continues to evolve, the readiness and unity of Estonia, Finland, and their allies will remain pivotal in countering Russian aggression in the Baltic Sea.
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