Japan’s Air Force has reported a sharp rise in emergency scrambles against foreign aircraft, underscoring growing tensions in the Asia-Pacific as Chinese military activity shows no sign of abating.
Figures released this week by the Ministry of Defense reveal that the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) conducted 73 scrambles during February alone, with the vast majority – 59 in total – prompted by Chinese aircraft operating near Japanese airspace. The remaining 14 were triggered by Russian planes.
The monthly figure marks a 25 per cent increase compared to January, reflecting what defense officials describe as a “persistent and concerning” uptick in regional airspace incursions.
A statement from the Joint Staff Office, released on March 12, points to a “continued intensification” of Chinese operations, particularly around the East China Sea, where territorial disputes over the Senkaku Islands have become an enduring flashpoint.
Charts published by the Ministry illustrate a troubling pattern. Scramble numbers have remained stubbornly high in recent years, with annual totals exceeding 700 for three consecutive years. Although there has been a gradual decline since the record peak of 1,168 scrambles in 2021, defense analysts warn that the overall operational tempo remains “historically elevated.”
The surge in Chinese military activity is seen by Tokyo as part of Beijing’s broader strategy to assert dominance in the region, amid rising tensions with the United States and its allies. China’s increasingly assertive posture has extended to frequent military drills, expansive naval deployments, and aggressive air patrols that often bring its fighter jets perilously close to Japanese territory.
“The numbers suggest a deliberate pattern of pressure,” said Akira Kato, a defense expert at Tokyo’s Waseda University. “China is testing Japan’s readiness and seeking to normalise a state of heightened military activity around its periphery.”
Russian military flights, while fewer in number, also continue to be a concern. Analysts note that Russia often conducts joint air patrols with China, demonstrating a growing military alignment between Moscow and Beijing as both countries seek to challenge Western influence in the region.
Japan, for its part, has responded by ramping up its defensive posture. The JASDF maintains a constant state of alert, with fighter jets based at key airbases across the country ready to intercept foreign aircraft at a moment’s notice. Pilots are tasked with identifying, tracking, and in some cases escorting the intruding planes away from Japanese airspace.
The growing burden on the Air Self-Defense Force is not without cost. High rates of scrambles put considerable strain on personnel and equipment, forcing the government to invest heavily in maintenance, training, and the procurement of next-generation fighter jets such as the F-35.
In response to the persistent threat, Japan’s Ministry of Defense has also pushed for closer security cooperation with allies. The country has strengthened ties with the United States, its longstanding security guarantor, and expanded strategic dialogues with Australia, Britain, and other like-minded democracies.
Last year, Tokyo unveiled a landmark National Security Strategy, pledging to double defense spending to two per cent of GDP by 2027 – a move widely interpreted as a clear signal of Japan’s readiness to take a more assertive role in regional security affairs.
For ordinary Japanese citizens, the increasing militarisation of the skies may feel remote. However, officials warn that these aerial encounters carry real risks.
“Every scramble is a potential flashpoint,” said a senior official at the Ministry of Defense. “All it takes is a miscalculation or a mechanical failure for an encounter to escalate into something much more serious.”
The Japanese government has repeatedly called on China and Russia to respect international norms and refrain from actions that destabilise the region. Yet with Beijing showing little inclination to moderate its behaviour, Japan faces the prospect of a long-term challenge to the security of its airspace.
Observers suggest that the situation is unlikely to improve in the near future. With China’s leadership under Xi Jinping focused on cementing its claims in the East and South China Seas, and Russia eager to demonstrate global reach despite its entanglement in Ukraine, both powers appear committed to projecting strength.
For Japan, this means maintaining a delicate balance: defending its sovereignty without triggering a dangerous confrontation.
In the words of Professor Kato, “This is the new normal in East Asia – a contest of wills played out, hour by hour, in the skies.”
Main Image: By 航空自衛隊ホームページ, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=57177635
