A quietly transformative deal between Europe and Canada, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), provisionally applied since 2017, has now been scrutinised by independent experts in a study published today. The verdict? It works—and then some.
The figures speak for themselves. Bilateral trade in goods and services between the EU and Canada surged by an eye-watering 71% between 2016 and 2023. In raw numbers, that’s a leap from €72.2 billion to €123 billion. EU exports of goods to Canada rose by 64%, while services exports soared by 81%. This is not some abstract uptick on a spreadsheet. It is hard proof that open, rules-based, and cooperative trade can deliver tangible benefits across the continent.
Perhaps most importantly for weary European taxpayers, the study reports that CETA adds an extra €3.2 billion to the EU’s GDP each year. Canada, too, gains with a €1.3 billion annual bump to its own economy.
The study is part of the Commission’s Better Regulation agenda, and comes at a time when public trust in globalisation—and in Brussels—remains fragile. Brexit, protectionist rumblings in the United States, and recent trade tensions with China have sharpened calls for economic self-sufficiency and strategic autonomy. Yet, as this latest analysis shows, global engagement can be a strength, not a weakness, when pursued wisely.
Small Firms, Big Gains
One of the more striking findings is the positive effect CETA has had on smaller businesses. According to the study, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the EU exporting to Canada grew by 20.3%, outpacing the 13.8% growth rate among larger firms. This suggests the Agreement is not just another tool for corporate giants, but a vehicle for European craftsmanship and entrepreneurship to find new markets.
Even more promising is CETA’s impact on green trade. Exports of environmental goods rose by 12%, while green services surged by 46%. As Europe attempts to transition toward a cleaner economy, such partnerships are crucial in developing and scaling sustainable technologies.
Beyond the Numbers
CETA is more than a trade deal—it’s a strategic alliance. The study underlines the role the agreement has played in securing access to critical raw materials, which has become a pressing issue in light of geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions. Cooperation between Ottawa and Brussels in this area has enhanced Europe’s ability to source vital inputs for its tech and green industries, reducing overdependence on autocratic regimes.
Another overlooked benefit lies in public procurement. Thanks to CETA’s ambitious provisions, the value of government contracts available to EU companies in Canada has increased by 8.4%. That means more opportunities for European engineering firms, consultants, and suppliers to tap into a lucrative North American market.
Socially, the gains may be more modest—but still worth noting. Real wages rose by 0.02% in the EU and 0.1% in Canada, proving that free trade need not come at the expense of workers.
Unfinished Business
Yet the report is not uncritical. While provisional application of CETA has delivered solid returns, full ratification remains elusive. Several EU Member States have delayed the process, wary of the agreement’s investment protection mechanisms. As a result, key sections—including those aimed at securing cross-border investment in sectors like mining—are not yet in force.
The study also flags the need for stronger provisions on digital trade. In 2017, the digital economy was already rising. Today, it is dominant. E-commerce, digital services, and data flows now shape modern trade in ways CETA’s original drafters could scarcely have anticipated. Updating the agreement to reflect that new reality is not just a policy recommendation—it’s an economic imperative.
What Comes Next?
The European Commission will now review the findings and is expected to issue a Staff Working Document later this year. This will outline concrete proposals for deepening the trade relationship with Canada and unlocking the untapped potential of the deal.
The bigger picture is this: amid growing scepticism about globalisation and increasing friction in international relations, CETA stands as a rare success story. It is a reminder that Europe does not have to choose between sovereignty and openness, or between economic security and international cooperation.
If the EU is serious about reindustrialising, leading the green transition, and defending its values on the world stage, then it must also be serious about its trade agenda. The Canada deal shows what’s possible. Now Brussels must finish what it started.
