Brussels – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is preparing for high-level discussions with European Union and NATO leaders in Brussels, where the focus will be on measures to ensure Ukraine’s security in the face of continuing Russian aggression. This meeting comes as the presidency of Donald Trump in the United States approaches, raising questions about the future of military and economic support for Ukraine from its Western allies.
A central point of discussion is a proposal for a European-led peacekeeping mission, which has gained traction among some EU member states. This initiative is seen as a potential guarantee for Ukraine’s security during a transitional phase, particularly if a peace agreement with Russia is reached. The concept was first floated by French President Emmanuel Macron nearly a year ago and has recently been revisited amid concerns over the possibility of diminished U.S. support.
European Peacekeeping Mission: An Ambitious Proposal
The European peacekeeping initiative envisions the formation of a multinational force composed of five to eight European nations, independent of NATO’s command structure. The proposed force would deploy approximately 40,000 troops and operate under bilateral agreements with Ukraine rather than NATO’s collective framework.
Poland, with its robust military capacity and geographical proximity to Ukraine, has been identified as a key potential contributor. However, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has categorically rejected the idea of committing troops to such a mission at this time. Speaking alongside President Macron, Tusk stated, “Any decision about Polish participation in Ukraine would be made in Warsaw, and at present, we have no plans to send troops. This remains speculative.”
Other European nations, including Germany, Sweden, and Denmark, have expressed reservations, citing operational risks, the lack of a clear mandate, and political divisions within the EU. Despite these challenges, Zelenskyy has endorsed the idea as a mechanism to ensure Ukraine’s security during a transition to EU and NATO membership.
Russian Resistance and Geopolitical Challenges
The feasibility of deploying European peacekeepers remains uncertain, particularly given the lack of willingness from Moscow to engage in substantive negotiations. Russia has intensified its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, with the apparent aim of destabilising the country during the winter months.
Ukrainian officials have condemned these attacks as a deliberate strategy to pressure Kyiv into political concessions. Analysts from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War have highlighted that these strikes are part of a broader effort to coerce Ukraine into accepting terms favourable to Moscow.
U.S. Policy Shifts Under Trump
Adding to the complexity is the forthcoming transition in U.S. leadership. President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to the Ukraine crisis is expected to differ significantly from that of his predecessor, Joe Biden. Trump has called for Europe to take on greater responsibility in resolving the conflict, suggesting that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine should be monitored by European peacekeeping forces.
During a recent meeting in Paris with Presidents Zelenskyy and Macron, Trump reportedly indicated that the U.S. may scale back military assistance to Ukraine, a move that could place greater pressure on European nations to fill the void.
Trump’s remarks have raised concerns in Kyiv, where officials fear that a reduction in U.S. support could embolden Russia and weaken Ukraine’s position in any future negotiations. Outgoing officials from the Biden administration have warned that such a shift could undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against continued Russian aggression.
Poland’s Domestic Calculations
Poland’s reluctance to participate in a European peacekeeping mission reflects not only strategic concerns but also domestic political considerations. Analysts in Warsaw note that committing troops to Ukraine could provoke significant public opposition, particularly in light of upcoming elections.
“Polish involvement in Ukraine could become a contentious issue domestically,” said Wacław Radziwinowicz, a Polish political commentator. “Any decision to send troops would likely face criticism from opposition parties and could weaken the government’s standing with voters.”
Poland’s stance also highlights broader divisions within Europe over how to address the Ukraine war. While France has been a vocal proponent of increased European engagement, other nations remain cautious, fearing that direct involvement could escalate tensions with Russia.
Broader Geopolitical Implications
Critics of the peacekeeping proposal argue that it is premature and impractical in the absence of a ceasefire agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no indication of willingness to negotiate on terms acceptable to Kyiv or the West.
“There is no basis for deploying peacekeepers without a ceasefire and mutual agreement,” noted Larisa Voloshyna, a Ukrainian journalist. “This initiative risks being perceived as political posturing unless it is backed by concrete steps toward a negotiated settlement.”
Moreover, some analysts believe that the peacekeeping discussions may serve more as a message to the incoming Trump administration, signalling Europe’s willingness to take a more active role in the conflict. However, questions remain about Europe’s capacity to act decisively without strong U.S. leadership.
The Stakes for Ukraine
For Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher. Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed the importance of securing long-term security guarantees, including eventual EU and NATO membership, to safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty.
At the same time, Kyiv must prepare for the possibility of reduced Western support, particularly if Trump’s administration prioritises negotiations with Russia over continued military assistance. This has led to calls for Ukraine to strengthen its domestic resilience, including economic reforms and bolstering its defence capabilities.
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