The question of Ukraine’s future leadership after the war is one of great interest to its citizens. Constitutionally, anyone meeting the requirements outlined in Article 103, Part 2 of the Constitution of Ukraine may run for president: a citizen of Ukraine aged at least 35, with voting rights, who has resided in Ukraine for the past decade and is proficient in the state language. As a democratic and legal state, Ukraine enables all individuals to aspire to the presidency, provided they comply with these rules.
However, historical precedent suggests that in post-war contexts, nations often turn to strong leaders with military backgrounds. This trend is not unique to Ukraine; it is a recurring theme in global history. Military leaders, forged in the crucible of war, often embody the resilience and determination that nations seek during times of reconstruction. Ukraine’s circumstances may follow this pattern, regardless of the eventual outcome of the war. Numerous historical examples demonstrate how war heroes, whether victorious or not, ascend to national leadership roles.
Lessons from History: Germany, the USA, and France
Germany: A War-Hardened Leader
Germany’s tumultuous history in the 20th century offers a case study in post-war leadership. After the First World War, the monarchy was abolished, and a revolution reshaped the country’s political landscape. In 1925, Paul von Hindenburg, a revered military figure from the war, was elected as the second president of the Weimar Republic. Hindenburg’s military credentials included commanding Germany’s Eastern Front offensive and later leading the General Staff during the war. Despite Germany’s defeat in World War I and the subsequent economic and social turmoil, the nation chose a leader who had shared its wartime struggles. This reflects a collective desire for continuity and resilience in challenging times.
The United States: Dwight D. Eisenhower
The United States provides another example. Following its decisive victory in World War II, the nation elected Dwight D. Eisenhower as president in 1953. Eisenhower’s leadership during the war was instrumental in shaping his reputation. As Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Forces, he directed pivotal campaigns, including Operation Overlord, the D-Day invasion of Normandy. His military achievements made him a unifying figure capable of leading the country through the complexities of the Cold War era. This demonstrates how a victorious war hero can transition to political leadership, leveraging their military experience to address national challenges.
France: Charles de Gaulle and the Spirit of Resistance
France’s experience in World War II highlights the unique role of resilience in leadership selection. Initially defeated and forced to capitulate to Nazi Germany, France found a symbol of resistance in Charles de Gaulle. Rejecting the capitulation, de Gaulle rallied the Free French forces and became the face of the Resistance Movement. His leadership during and after the war earned him widespread respect, culminating in his presidency of the Fifth Republic in 1959. France’s complex wartime experience, which included both defeat and eventual victory, highlights how a nation can find unity and hope in a leader who embodies its resilience.
Ukraine’s Potential Path
Based on historical patterns, Ukraine may also gravitate towards a leader with a military background after the war. Such a leader would likely have shared in the nation’s hardships and emerged as a symbol of its strength and unity. However, the timing of this transition could vary. While a military leader may rise immediately after the war, it is equally possible that such a figure could ascend to power in subsequent elections, as Ukraine’s political dynamics evolve.
Ukraine’s recent history, marked by remarkable acts of resilience and innovation, suggests that the nation is capable of defying traditional narratives and charting its unique course. A genuinely democratic process could yield surprising outcomes, reflecting the diversity and dynamism of its people.
Elections and the Post-War Landscape
According to Ukraine’s Constitution, presidential elections are held on the last Sunday of March in the fifth year of the sitting president’s term. The next elections, originally scheduled for March 2024, have been postponed due to the ongoing war. This decision aligns with the principle that democracy cannot fully function in wartime, ensuring the integrity of the electoral process. While the immediate focus remains on achieving victory and rebuilding the nation, the question of Ukraine’s future leadership remains an important topic for discussion.
Dr. Mykhailo Mosora,
PhD in Political Science
Politologist & Researcher, Carpathian Institute of Analytics “FrankoLytics”
Lecturer, King Danylo University
