Recent reports suggest the United States may have authorised Ukraine to target Russian territory using ATACMS missiles, marking a possible escalation in the conflict’s scope. Although the White House and Pentagon have yet to confirm this publicly, several U.S. media outlets reported the news yesterday, indicating a strategic shift in Western support for Kyiv.
Implications for the Russia-Ukraine War
If confirmed, the ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles Ukraine now possesses—capable of striking up to 300 kilometres—could allow Kyiv to target key military infrastructure within Russian territory. Critical sites in regions such as Voronezh, Belgorod, and Kursk could become vulnerable, with implications for Russia’s supply chains, command centres, and military resources that are essential to sustaining its operations in Ukraine.
There are, however, signs that this permission might come with specific geographic limitations, as seen with other weapon systems like HIMARS. Reports suggest a restricted operational scope similar to past arrangements, where U.S.-provided weapons have been accompanied by strict usage guidelines.
Strategic Timing and Possible U.S. Motives
The timing of this reported authorisation has raised questions. One line of reasoning is that the Biden administration’s decision could be a reaction to Russia’s use of North Korean ballistic missiles in its campaign against Ukraine, a recent escalation in Moscow’s military strategy. Another possibility is that the U.S. seeks to deter further North Korean support to Russia by signalling an increase in its own support to Kyiv. Alternatively, the post-election period in the U.S. may have allowed Biden to make this decision without concern over immediate political repercussions at home.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted cautiously to the news leak, remarking that “such actions should speak for themselves, not be announced.” His comment shows Kyiv’s frustration that sensitive information has surfaced early, potentially allowing Russia time to bolster its defences. While Zelensky neither confirmed nor denied the reports, his statement conveys clear dissatisfaction with the timing of the disclosure, which could compromise the element of surprise critical to these operations.
Premature Disclosures: A Recurring Issue
This is not the first instance where key operational information has leaked into the public sphere. Previously, details on Ukraine’s so-called “Victory Plan” and its alleged request for Tomahawk missiles were disclosed in Western media, to the dismay of Kyiv. Such disclosures risk undermining operational plans by giving Russia the opportunity to adjust its military posture or attempt to leverage Western nations into reversing their support.
This premature disclosure of ATACMS authorisation similarly risks diminishing its tactical advantage, as it allows Russia time to disperse assets, reinforce air defences, and prepare political responses that could apply pressure on Western governments.
Expanding Ukrainian Capability with Drones
Meanwhile, Ukraine has been enhancing its capability to strike Russian territory independently, utilising domestically developed drones, including FPV kamikaze models effective in cross-border engagements. While drones have served Ukraine well, an official U.S. authorisation for missile strikes would reinforce Kyiv’s strategic position and send a powerful diplomatic message of Washington’s support.
Geopolitically, this development could deepen the tensions. Moscow has consistently warned that enabling Ukraine to strike its territory constitutes a dangerous escalation and could be perceived as direct NATO involvement in the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously stated that Western involvement at this level would trigger serious consequences, with Kremlin officials cautioning that Russia would retaliate accordingly.
Yet, Moscow’s extensive attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure have set a precedent for Ukraine’s expanded military reach. Under the UN Charter’s provisions on self-defence, Ukraine has the right to respond proportionally to Russian aggression within and beyond its own borders. If Moscow insists on escalating the conflict, Kyiv appears increasingly prepared to respond decisively.
Limited Supplies and Operational Realities
The number of ATACMS missiles Ukraine currently possesses remains limited, which may restrict the scale of future strikes. U.S. officials have emphasised that stockpiles are prioritised for other strategic needs, though additional support may become feasible if remaining funds in the U.S. budget allocated for Ukrainian assistance are mobilised.
Given these limitations, the immediate impact may be limited to tactical strikes rather than a sweeping shift in the conflict’s balance. This means that while Ukraine now has the potential to target deeper, significant operational gains will require sustained support and possibly additional stockpiles of missiles.
French and British Positions on SCALP and Storm Shadow
Meanwhile, Le Figaro briefly reported that France and the UK might have been ready to follow the U.S. lead by permitting Ukraine to use SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles.
However, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna later clarified that France had “not changed its position” and that this remains “under consideration.” The initial report was subsequently retracted, reflecting the sensitivities surrounding the decision.
With Ukraine now seemingly empowered to strike further into Russian territory, Moscow will likely weigh its response. Whether this signals a significant turning point in the conflict or a temporary adjustment to ongoing support remains to be seen.
