Reports have emerged suggesting that Moscow has proposed a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Saudi Arabia. This development coincides with Trump’s first official visit to the kingdom since assuming office.
The prospect of such a meeting raises questions about its implications for the ongoing war in Ukraine, global oil prices, and broader geopolitical realignments.
Why Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia, which is not under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC), has previously hosted Putin despite an ICC arrest warrant issued against him. The kingdom also plays a crucial role in global energy markets, and Trump has signalled his intention to pressure Saudi authorities to increase oil production, aiming to lower fuel prices. This aligns with his broader economic strategy but raises concerns over potential repercussions for Russia’s oil-dependent economy.
Oil Politics and Its Impact on Russia
A key issue in any Trump-Putin discussions would likely be energy prices. Putin’s economy heavily relies on oil revenues, and any move by Saudi Arabia to flood the market with additional supply could significantly impact Russian finances. Saudi Arabia and its partners in OPEC+ have the capacity to introduce up to five million additional barrels per day, which would directly compete with Russian exports, currently estimated at 4.1 million barrels per day.
Such a scenario would place severe financial strain on Moscow, reducing its ability to fund the war in Ukraine. However, despite speculation about potential shifts in oil policies, OPEC+ has so far maintained its strategy of production cuts to keep prices stable above $80 per barrel. Whether Trump can persuade the Saudis to alter their stance remains uncertain.
The Ukraine Factor: Can Economic Pressure End the War?
Trump has previously suggested that he could broker a resolution to the Ukraine war through economic measures. However, many experts argue that financial pressure alone is unlikely to force Putin into a settlement. The Kremlin has demonstrated resilience in maintaining its war effort despite Western sanctions, declining revenues, and battlefield setbacks. Furthermore, Russia has adapted by redirecting oil exports to China and India at discounted prices, albeit at a loss compared to previous sales to Europe.
Putin’s reluctance to engage in serious negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is another complicating factor. His approach to diplomacy often involves setting conditions that are unacceptable to Kyiv and its Western allies. Trump’s attempt to broker peace through economic leverage may face the same obstacles that previous Western efforts encountered: Putin’s unwillingness to compromise on what he views as core strategic interests.
Middle East Dynamics and Trump’s Approach
Beyond Ukraine, Trump’s broader Middle East strategy could also influence discussions in Saudi Arabia. His administration has long sought to expand the Abraham Accords, fostering closer ties between Israel and Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. However, the ongoing war in Gaza complicates these efforts, as does Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Iran’s advancing nuclear programme remains a concern for both the US and Israel. Recent reports indicate that Tehran may be accelerating efforts to develop nuclear capabilities, raising the possibility of Israeli military action. Trump’s approach to the Iranian issue could be a key factor in his talks with Saudi leadership. If he pledges stronger measures against Iran, Riyadh may be more inclined to cooperate with his energy policy.
Russia’s Waning Influence in the Middle East
Moscow’s position in the Middle East appears increasingly precarious. Its traditional alliances with Syria and Iran have weakened significantly. Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled to Russia and is no longer in power, further diminishing Moscow’s regional influence. Additionally, Russia is in the process of withdrawing from its military bases in Syria, including those in Tartus and Hmeimim. This retreat highlights Russia’s declining ability to project power in the region as it focuses its military resources on Ukraine.
At the same time, Iran’s strategic calculus appears to be shifting. There are indications that Tehran may be open to negotiations with Washington, as highlighted by a recent speech from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which he suggested a potential deal with the US. This shift, if materialised, could further isolate Russia in the region.
Potential Outcomes of a Trump-Putin Meeting
Should a Trump-Putin meeting take place in Saudi Arabia, several outcomes are possible:
- Oil Price Agreement: Trump may push for lower oil prices, but whether Saudi Arabia is willing to accommodate his demands at the expense of its own revenue remains uncertain.
- Geopolitical Messaging: Putin would likely use the meeting to project an image of global influence, countering perceptions of Russia’s isolation.
- No Immediate Impact on the War: Given Putin’s approach to negotiations and the entrenched nature of the conflict in Ukraine, a significant shift in Russia’s war policy is unlikely.
- Middle East Policy Realignments: Trump may seek to leverage Saudi influence to counterbalance Iran, potentially affecting broader US policy in the region.
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