Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of the Syrian rebel faction, has emerged as a central figure in the ongoing upheaval following President Bashar al-Assad’s reported flight to Russia. Once regarded as a hardline Islamist militant, al-Jolani is now positioning himself as a moderate leader capable of steering Syria towards a new era. This transformation, however, has sparked debate over whether it represents a genuine ideological shift or a calculated move to secure international legitimacy.
From Extremist Beginnings to Political Aspirations
Born in 1982 on the Golan Heights, al-Jolani first gained prominence during the early 2000s amidst the turbulence of the Iraq War. Inspired by the Second Intifada in Palestine, he joined al-Qaeda in Iraq and served under its notorious leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Following his capture by U.S. forces, al-Jolani spent time in detention before returning to Syria in 2011 as the civil war erupted.
His initial role was to establish al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, which later evolved into Jabhat al-Nusra. Under his leadership, the group gained notoriety for its extremist ideology and violent tactics. However, by 2016, al-Jolani distanced himself from al-Qaeda, rebranding his group as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a move interpreted as an attempt to appeal to a broader audience and consolidate power within Syria’s fractured opposition.
A Carefully Curated Image
In recent months, al-Jolani has adopted a markedly different public persona. Gone are the traditional Islamist robes and unkempt beard; he now appears clean-shaven, dressed in a Western-style suit, and delivers speeches emphasising unity, inclusivity, and the rebuilding of Syria. This shift is emblematic of a strategic rebranding effort designed to garner support both domestically and internationally.
In his latest address, al-Jolani pledged to respect the rights of all Syrians, regardless of their religious or ethnic backgrounds. His leadership has also seen a visible effort to restore normalcy in rebel-controlled areas, with reports of Christmas decorations appearing in Christian neighbourhoods of Damascus and elsewhere, countering earlier accusations of religious intolerance by his faction.
Scepticism and Controversy
While al-Jolani’s transformation has impressed some observers, many remain sceptical. Critics argue that his ideological core remains unchanged and that his newfound pragmatism is a façade aimed at securing funding and political recognition. The U.S. State Department still lists al-Jolani as a terrorist, offering a $10 million reward for information leading to his capture.
Analysts also point to parallels with groups like the Taliban, which similarly presented a more moderate image during negotiations while maintaining a hardline agenda behind the scenes. Al-Jolani’s critics warn that HTS, despite its current rhetoric, could revert to its Islamist roots once its position is secure.
The Role of Turkey
Turkey has played a pivotal role in al-Jolani’s rise, providing logistical support and reportedly influencing his group’s strategies. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently acknowledged Ankara’s decade-long relationship with Syrian opposition forces, underscoring Turkey’s ambitions to shape Syria’s future. This partnership has allowed al-Jolani to expand his influence while avoiding direct confrontations with Turkish forces, which have been active in northern Syria.
However, Turkey’s involvement has raised concerns about its ultimate intentions. Some fear that Ankara is using al-Jolani as a proxy to consolidate its control over northern Syria and counter Kurdish ambitions in the region.
Challenges Ahead
Al-Jolani’s leadership faces significant challenges. Internally, he must navigate tensions within the opposition, balancing the demands of various factions while maintaining cohesion. Externally, he needs to convince the international community that his group can lead a stable, inclusive government in a war-torn nation.
Moreover, his ties to Turkey and his faction’s history of extremism make it difficult for Western powers to trust his intentions. The spectre of past atrocities committed under his leadership continues to loom large, complicating efforts to secure international recognition.
A Delicate Balancing Act
Abu Muhammad al-Jolani’s transformation reflects the shifting dynamics of Syria’s leadership following Bashar al-Assad’s reported departure. While his efforts to rebrand suggest an attempt to gain political legitimacy, his past as a militant leader continues to cast doubt on his intentions and capacity to foster genuine reconciliation.
Al-Jolani’s rebranding raises immediate, practical questions: Can he consolidate control without reverting to authoritarian practices? Will his leadership address Syria’s sectarian divides, or will it deepen existing fractures? The answers will determine whether he becomes a stabilising force or merely employs a temporary tactic to secure power. His actions in the coming months will be critical in shaping Syria’s post-Assad trajectory.
