The Croatian presidential election campaign officially began on 12 December, with the first round of voting scheduled for 29 December. As Croatia prepares to elect its next head of state, incumbent President Zoran Milanović, known for his pro-Russian rhetoric and anti-Ukrainian statements, is seeking a second term. The outcome could shape Croatia’s foreign policy direction, particularly regarding its relationship with NATO, the European Union, and Ukraine.
Milanović’s Polarising Presidency
Zoran Milanović, Croatia’s president since 2020, has been a controversial figure within the European Union. He has made several pro-Russian remarks, including claims that Crimea will never return to Ukraine, and has obstructed government initiatives to support NATO’s mission to train Ukrainian forces. Despite these actions, Milanović enjoys strong domestic support, with recent polls showing 23.3% of voters approving of his performance compared to 13.5% for Prime Minister Andrej Plenković.
Milanović is backed by the opposition Social Democratic Party and several leftist factions. His populist stance, including calls to avoid entangling Croatia in the Ukraine war, resonates with voters wary of international military conflicts. He has also capitalised on growing Euroscepticism and dissatisfaction with NATO among segments of the Croatian electorate. Milanović’s sharp criticism of Prime Minister Plenković and his party, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), has further bolstered his image as a charismatic “outsider” challenging the establishment.
The Challenger: Dragan Primorac
The HDZ has nominated Dragan Primorac, a former Minister of Education and Science, as its candidate. Primorac is a political newcomer with little recognition beyond HDZ circles. His campaign has been criticised for its lack of independence, with observers noting his frequent appearances alongside party leaders rather than presenting himself as a standalone candidate. Milanović mocked his dependence on HDZ leadership, joking that Plenković “delivered the signatures” for Primorac’s candidacy.
Primorac has expressed strong support for NATO and further European integration, advocating continued military assistance to Ukraine, though he opposes deploying Croatian troops to active combat zones. However, his campaign faces significant hurdles, including allegations about inconsistencies in his military service record and unverified claims of connections to corruption scandals. These issues, coupled with a lacklustre campaign strategy, have cast doubt on his ability to challenge Milanović effectively.
The Role of “Third Forces”
While the primary contest appears to be between Milanović and Primorac, political analysts suggest a surprise contender could emerge. Two female candidates, Ivana Kekin of the opposition platform “Možemo!” and independent candidate Marija Selak Radunović, have gained momentum.
Both candidates advocate systemic reforms in healthcare and education, anti-corruption measures, and job creation. Kekin supports targeted assistance to Ukraine, focusing on maximising Croatia’s impact, while Radunović has taken a more cautious approach, calling for further information before committing to military aid.
If Primorac fails to mobilise support, either Kekin or Radunović could face Milanović in a runoff scheduled for 12 January. Their ability to attract votes from disillusioned HDZ supporters and other opposition groups could make them viable challengers.
What’s at Stake?
While the Croatian presidency is largely ceremonial, Milanović has demonstrated the power of the role in obstructing government initiatives, particularly in defence and foreign policy. His re-election would likely mean continued opposition to NATO’s activities in Croatia and a cooling of relations with Ukraine.
In contrast, a victory for Primorac or one of the independent candidates could strengthen Croatia’s alignment with NATO and the EU, offering clearer support for Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict with Russia.
The outcome of this election will also reflect broader political trends in Croatia, including public sentiment towards the EU, NATO, and regional politics. With Milanović currently the frontrunner but facing credible challenges, the second round is expected to be decisive.
