Russian seaborne oil exports have experienced a notable increase ahead of crucial OPEC+ negotiations regarding production policy for early 2025. This development comes amidst indications that the alliance may need to delay plans to reintroduce barrels to the market for a third time, according to Bloomberg.
Surge in Export Volumes
Four-week average export volumes rose by approximately 50,000 barrels per day in the period leading up to 1 December, driven by a rebound in weekly shipments, which had previously declined for three consecutive weeks.
The growth was primarily concentrated in Russia’s western ports, where shipments from all export terminals recovered following two weeks of subpar performance. By contrast, operations at the key Pacific terminal of Kozmino faced disruptions due to strong winds, which reduced loading operations by one-third during part of the week.
Weekly Shipment Data
During the week ending 1 December, 30 tankers loaded a total of 23.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil. This represented an increase from the revised figure of 19.5 million barrels shipped by 26 vessels in the previous week. Daily crude shipments climbed by approximately 570,000 barrels to reach 3.36 million barrels per day, bolstered by increased flows from the country’s western ports. This surge was also supported by a rise in tanker departures from Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports.
The less volatile four-week average daily flows rose for the first time in three weeks, reaching 3.13 million barrels per day—an increase of 50,000 barrels compared to the revised figure for the period ending 24 November.
Broader Trends and Financial Implications
Despite the recent uptick, Russian crude oil shipments in 2024 remain approximately 60,000 barrels per day, or 1.8%, below the average for the entirety of 2023.
Nevertheless, Moscow’s revenue from oil sales has risen. Although there was a slight decline in the average weekly prices for key Russian oil grades, the spike in export volumes largely offset this. The gross value of Russia’s oil shipments in the week leading up to 1 December grew by roughly $230 million to an estimated $1.5 billion.
Strategic Considerations for OPEC+
This uptick in Russian exports comes at a sensitive time for OPEC+, as the alliance faces the challenge of balancing global supply and demand dynamics. The recent increase in Russian volumes could complicate discussions about production quotas and the timing of bringing additional barrels to market. Such negotiations are critical as the bloc seeks to maintain price stability in the face of fluctuating demand and geopolitical pressures.
The outcome of these discussions will likely shape the energy market’s trajectory as it enters 2025, with global players closely monitoring Russia’s export strategy and its implications for broader market dynamics.
