Russia has commenced the withdrawal of naval vessels and military equipment from its bases in Syria following significant territorial losses, including the capital, Damascus. The retreat comes amid a decisive offensive by opposition forces in key Syrian provinces.
Background of the Withdrawal
According to Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Directorate (HUR), the Russian military has evacuated combat ships from its naval base in Tartus and has been airlifting military hardware from the Khmeimim Air Base. These facilities were previously granted to Russia by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who sought Moscow’s support in exchange for strategic footholds in Syria.
On 8 December, the Russian Black Sea Fleet frigate Admiral Grigorovich and the Northern Fleet cargo ship Engineer Trubin set sail from Tartus, reflecting a strategic withdrawal as opposition forces solidify their control along Syria’s western coastline.
Opposition Advances and Damascus’ Fall
The withdrawal follows a series of critical developments in Syria. Opposition groups, emboldened by recent successes in Latakia, Hama, and Tartus provinces, captured Damascus earlier today. This marked the end of Assad’s control over the Syrian capital and potentially his regime. Reports indicate that Assad fled Damascus before the opposition’s arrival, with some speculation that he may have perished in an air incident on 8 December.
Contrary to these reports, Russian officials claim Assad voluntarily resigned and left the country as part of a negotiated transfer of power. They assert that he has instructed loyalists to ensure a peaceful transition.
Strategic Implications
HUR’s analysis highlights the strategic significance of Russia’s withdrawals. With Damascus under opposition control, anti-Assad forces are reportedly advancing towards the coastal regions, threatening the Tartus and Hmeimim bases. Losing these strongholds would mark a significant defeat for Moscow, which has invested heavily in maintaining its presence in the region since its intervention in 2015.
HUR’s statement underscores this point, noting: “The likely loss of military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim finalises the Kremlin’s defeat in the Middle East.”
The developments signal a turning point in Syria’s civil war, with the opposition now holding substantial leverage in shaping the country’s future. Russia’s retreat, coupled with Assad’s apparent fall, raises questions about the Kremlin’s ability to project power and protect its allies in volatile regions.
