Vladimir Putin has arrived in Kazakhstan for a state visit and has already held talks with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. This trip underscores two realities. First, the number of countries Putin can visit without risking arrest under an International Criminal Court warrant is dwindling. Second, visits to former Soviet republics reveal a consistent pattern: Moscow’s influence in these regions waxes and wanes in sync with its military fortunes in Ukraine.
The Geopolitical Balancing Act
For Kazakhstan, Putin’s visit highlights the tightrope Tokayev must walk. On one hand, he seeks to maintain Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and strengthen ties with other global powers like China. On the other, he avoids provoking Russia’s aggressive tendencies. Kazakhstan is acutely aware of the consequences of such provocations, as evidenced by Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
In a seemingly conciliatory move, the Kazakh parliament recently ratified an agreement to promote the Russian language within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This came amidst criticism from Russian propagandists accusing Kazakhstan of following Ukraine’s path by emphasising its native Kazakh language. While the decision stirred domestic discontent, Tokayev’s government framed it as an international gesture rather than a domestic cultural policy, likely aimed at appeasing Moscow.
The Shadow Of Economic Dependence
Kazakhstan, like other former Soviet republics, plays a pivotal role in helping Russia navigate Western sanctions. While Astana is reluctant to fully endorse these activities, cutting ties with Russia entirely would risk severe repercussions. Energy cooperation is a key area of contention. Russia is lobbying hard for Rosatom to build a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, following a referendum that saw 71% of voters approve the project. However, questions about who will construct the plant remain. Moscow’s increasing involvement in Kazakhstan’s energy sector raises concerns about potential overreach, threatening both Kazakh and Chinese interests.
Collective Security And Lingering Tensions
Putin’s visit coincides with a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), attended by leaders of member states, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The meeting serves as a reminder of Russia’s influence over regional security, a point not lost on Tokayev. Russian troops from the CSTO played a crucial role in quelling Kazakhstan’s domestic unrest in 2022, solidifying Tokayev’s grip on power. This intervention not only sidelined his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, but also reinforced Tokayev’s indebtedness to Moscow.
The Ukrainian Factor
Kazakhstan’s position is intricately linked to the war in Ukraine. Moscow’s successes or failures on the battlefield directly influence its leverage in Central Asia. Russian advances in Ukraine embolden its posture in the region, while setbacks diminish its sway. As Tokayev navigates this complex landscape, he must balance Kazakhstan’s relationships with Russia, China, and the West.
Interestingly, Tokayev’s recent European tour, which included stops in France, Serbia, and Hungary, offers a contrast to Putin’s isolation from Western leaders. With Putin relying on second-hand insights about Western attitudes, such as those shared by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in their rare phone call, Tokayev’s diplomatic manoeuvres may provide valuable information for the Russian president.
A Nuclear Question And Regional Control
Energy remains a critical aspect of the Russia-Kazakhstan relationship. Rosatom’s push to build Kazakhstan’s nuclear power plant exemplifies Moscow’s desire to entrench itself in the region’s energy sector. While the project has domestic support, the question of Russian control looms large, raising concerns about whether Kazakhstan can retain autonomy over such a strategic initiative.
A Fragile Alliance
Putin’s visit underscores the precarious nature of Russia’s alliances with former Soviet states. For Kazakhstan, maintaining a delicate balance between appeasing Moscow and safeguarding its independence is a perpetual challenge. The broader regional dynamics, shaped by the war in Ukraine and growing Chinese influence, add layers of complexity.
As Putin courts allies in Central Asia and attempts to assert Russian dominance, Kazakhstan’s cautious diplomacy serves as both a testament to its resilience and a reflection of the ever-shifting geopolitical sands in the post-Soviet space.
