Russian President Vladimir Putin has intensified his threats towards Ukraine, linking them to a recent large-scale drone attack on Kazan. In response, he vowed significantly greater destruction within Ukraine and ordered a combat trial of the Oreshnik missile complex. This weapon system, frequently mentioned in Putin’s speeches, has become a central tool in his strategy to exert pressure—not only on Ukraine but potentially on the West as well.
A Shift in Putin’s Stance
Putin’s reaction to this latest attack differs starkly from his stance a year ago, when a similar incident in Kazan went largely unaddressed. Now visibly angered, his rhetoric appears calculated, targeting not Ukrainian leadership or citizens directly, but a new audience: Donald Trump and his incoming administration in the United States.
The strategy is clear: to exploit Trump’s fears and concerns about nuclear escalation and massive destruction in Ukraine. Putin’s repeated emphasis on the Oreshnik system—described as capable of delivering damage comparable to nuclear weapons while ostensibly adhering to international treaties—underscores this tactic. The aim is to convince Trump’s team that ending the war in Ukraine aligns with U.S. interests, but on terms favourable to Russia.
Leverage Through Threats
Putin’s messaging seeks to position Ukraine as a bargaining chip. By painting a dire picture of escalating destruction and potential conflict resembling nuclear warfare, he hopes to pressure the U.S. into advocating for a resolution that aligns with Kremlin objectives. This involves formalising Russian control over occupied Ukrainian territories and reducing the remaining areas under Kyiv’s control to a dependent, vassal-like state—essentially a larger version of Belarus.
The proposals Putin appears to be reviving closely resemble Russia’s demands from late 2021, which included halting NATO expansion into former Soviet republics like Ukraine and Georgia and withdrawing advanced NATO weaponry from countries that joined the alliance after 1997. The intent is to redraw the geopolitical map of Europe, consolidating Russian influence over former Warsaw Pact and Yugoslavian territories.
Targeting Trump’s Fears
Putin’s strategy hinges on exploiting Trump’s apprehensions. Trump’s campaign rhetoric has included warnings about widespread destruction in Ukraine and the risks of nuclear escalation. Putin is amplifying these fears, framing Oreshnik as a credible threat that avoids outright nuclear treaty violations while still delivering catastrophic impact. By doing so, Putin aims to create a narrative where ending the war on Russia’s terms appears to be a rational choice for the U.S.
The timing is strategic, as Putin seeks to sway Trump before his inauguration. By presenting the Kremlin’s demands as a pathway to peace, Putin hopes to shift the burden of negotiation onto Trump, pressuring him to accept conditions that effectively legitimise Russian aggression and undermine NATO’s security framework.
Broader Geopolitical Ambitions
Beyond Ukraine, Putin’s endgame involves re-establishing Russia as a dominant force in Europe. His rhetoric aims to fracture Western unity, empowering far-right and far-left political movements in Europe that align with Moscow’s worldview. These groups, some of which also express sympathies for Trump and other conservative figures, could help Russia influence European politics, potentially weakening EU and NATO cohesion.
This strategy also appeals to a segment of European politicians who, before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, voiced support for recognising former Soviet republics as part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Should the war in Ukraine de-escalate, these voices may re-emerge, advocating for reduced support for Kyiv and a geopolitical settlement favourable to Moscow.
Ukraine as a Testing Ground
For Putin, Ukraine has become a proving ground—not just for military technologies like Oreshnik, but also for psychological warfare aimed at shaping international opinion. His threats against Ukraine serve a dual purpose: to demoralise its population and leadership, and to send a message to the West, particularly the U.S., about the potential consequences of continued support for Kyiv.
Putin’s ultimate goal is not vengeance but the execution of a calculated geopolitical strategy. By leveraging fear and destruction, he seeks to compel the West, particularly Trump’s administration, to accept a resolution that cements Russia’s influence in Ukraine and redefines European security on Kremlin terms. Whether this strategy will succeed, however, depends on the resolve of the U.S. and its allies to resist Putin’s attempts to reshape the global order through coercion.
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Putin’s Escalation Signals: What Lies Ahead for NATO, Ukraine, and Trump?
