The race to succeed Andrzej Duda as President of Poland is gradually taking shape, even as official campaigning is expected to commence in early 2025. Behind the scenes, however, the political manoeuvring is already well underway, with key candidates emerging from Poland’s major parties and political blocs.
The Favourites: Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki
Rafał Trzaskowski: The Mayor with National Ambitions
Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw, is widely regarded as the frontrunner. Representing the ruling Civic Coalition (KO) led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Trzaskowski brings significant experience and a robust political profile. His career spans roles in local government and European institutions, having served as an MEP and a minister in Tusk’s government.
Trzaskowski previously contested the presidency in 2020, losing to Duda in a tightly fought second round by a margin of just over 2%. Despite the defeat, the campaign bolstered his national recognition and showcased his ability to mobilise support in a short period under challenging circumstances.
Now, with stronger backing from the governing coalition and riding on public discontent with the previous Law and Justice (PiS) administration, Trzaskowski enters the race in a stronger position. Recent polling by Opinia24 suggests he commands the support of 41% of voters, a significant lead over his opponents.
However, Trzaskowski’s candidacy is not without challenges. Critics within PiS portray him as an elitist, disconnected from ordinary Poles, and question his commitment to national security and foreign policy – areas traditionally central to Poland’s presidency.
Karol Nawrocki: The PiS-Supported Independent
Karol Nawrocki, officially running as an independent, is the preferred candidate of the conservative PiS party. As the current head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) and former director of the Museum of the Second World War in Gdańsk, Nawrocki’s campaign aligns closely with PiS’s historical and nationalistic themes.
Despite his credentials, Nawrocki’s political inexperience poses a challenge. His entry into the presidential race was marked by a lacklustre speech that raised doubts about his readiness for the national stage. Nonetheless, PiS selected him over other party stalwarts to avoid a direct association with their recent scandals and declining popularity.
Polls indicate Nawrocki enjoys 24-26% support in the first round. His campaign is expected to focus on nationalist themes and historical grievances, particularly concerning Poland’s relations with Ukraine. This approach aims to attract voters from the far-right Confederation party, crucial for advancing to a potential second round.
The Outsiders: Szymon Hołownia and Sławomir Mentzen
Szymon Hołownia: The Struggling Speaker
Szymon Hołownia, the Speaker of the Sejm and leader of the Poland 2050 party, faces an uphill battle. Once a surprise contender in the 2020 presidential elections, where he secured third place with 13.8% of the vote, Hołownia’s influence has waned. Recent polling gives him around 8%, reflecting a loss of momentum.
Hołownia’s reputation has been tarnished by allegations related to his association with Collegium Humanum, a private university embroiled in corruption scandals. Though he denies being a student, the controversy has damaged his credibility. His position as Speaker has also been weakened by ideological disputes within the ruling coalition, particularly with left-leaning partners.
Sławomir Mentzen: The Populist Challenger
Sławomir Mentzen, representing the far-right Confederation party, is a wildcard in the presidential race. A 38-year-old entrepreneur and tax consultant, Mentzen appeals to young, disillusioned voters with his anti-establishment rhetoric and scepticism toward the EU and Ukraine. However, his online popularity may not translate into electoral success, as past elections have shown Confederation’s support to be less robust at the ballot box.
Mentzen’s campaign is likely to focus on nationalist and anti-immigration themes, along with criticisms of Poland’s military and financial support for Ukraine. While he currently polls at 12%, his ability to consolidate the far-right electorate will determine his impact on the race.
The Path Ahead
With the possibility of additional candidates, including a nominee from the Left, the presidential race is likely to focus on Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. Trzaskowski faces the task of countering perceptions of elitism while articulating a persuasive vision for Poland’s future. For Nawrocki, the challenge lies in establishing his credibility as a leader while contending with the tarnished reputation of PiS.
The campaign is expected to be highly competitive, mirroring Poland’s deep political divisions. Key issues such as national security, historical policy, and Poland’s position on Ukraine are poised to dominate the debate, influencing the country’s trajectory in the coming years.
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