Oil prices moved in a narrow range on 27 January as traders weighed winter disruption in the United States against signs that crude exports from Kazakhstan could recover after a series of outages and shipping constraints.
In early trading, Brent futures were quoted at about $65.15 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate near $60.28.
The market focus has been on Kazakhstan’s ability to restore output at Tengiz, the country’s largest oilfield, and to stabilise loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast. Kazakhstan is the world’s 12th largest oil producer and a member of the Opec+ group that coordinates supply policy with Russia and other producers.
Tengizchevroil, the consortium led by Chevron that operates Tengiz, halted production at Tengiz and the nearby Korolev field on 18 January after an incident that disrupted power supply. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said Korolev had restarted and Tengiz was preparing to resume in the near future. Tengizchevroil confirmed that the site power distribution system had been started safely and that initial crude production had resumed, with output expected to increase gradually.
Industry sources, however, indicated that volumes remained far below normal and that a force majeure affecting CPC Blend supplies had not yet been lifted. One source cited by Reuters said output was running at roughly 8,000 tonnes a day, equivalent to about 60,000 barrels a day, a fraction of typical levels. JPMorgan estimated that Kazakhstan’s crude output in January could average 1.0–1.1 million barrels a day, compared with a usual level of around 1.8 million.
The Tengiz disruption has mattered because it sits at the centre of Kazakhstan’s export system. Reuters cited the energy ministry as saying Tengiz accounts for nearly half of Kazakhstan’s oil output, while the field produced roughly 606,000 barrels a day in 2024. Shareholders in Tengizchevroil include Chevron (50 per cent), ExxonMobil (25 per cent), KazMunayGas (20 per cent) and Lukoil (5 per cent).
Export flows have also been constrained at the CPC marine terminal near Novorossiysk. The terminal normally handles about 80 per cent of Kazakhstan’s crude exports and around 1.5 per cent of global supply. It has operated below capacity since mid-November after one of its offshore moorings was taken out of service for planned maintenance and another was damaged in a drone attack in late November.
Against that backdrop, the CPC said it had returned to full loading capacity after maintenance was completed at one of its three offshore mooring points. Reuters reported that a tanker was scheduled to dock for loadings from the repaired SPM-3. Even with improved loading capacity, overall shipments have been sensitive to upstream production at Tengiz and to the status of force majeure declarations.
The recent constraints have had knock-on effects across Kazakhstan’s wider upstream. Reuters reported last week that oil from the giant Kashagan field was diverted to the domestic market for the first time because of CPC bottlenecks, with some volumes also routed to China via the Atasu–Alashankou pipeline. Kashagan crude was supplied to the Shymkent refinery.
While Kazakhstan was the main non-US factor limiting oil price gains, the US storm still provided support by temporarily shutting in production and disrupting refinery operations. US producers lost up to 2 million barrels a day over the weekend, roughly 15 per cent of national output, with several refineries along the Gulf Coast reporting weather-related issues.
Attention now turns to whether Kazakhstan can restore stable exports in parallel with Opec+ deliberations. Reuters reported that eight Opec+ members, including Kazakhstan, were expected to keep the group’s pause on output increases for March at a meeting on 1 February, after oil prices rose earlier this month partly on the back of Kazakhstan’s supply losses.
