A new round of negotiations between US and Iranian delegations concerning Iran’s nuclear programme is set to take place next week in Oman.
The talks will be attended by Steve Witkoff, Special Representative of the President of the United States, and Abbas Araqchi, Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran. The discussions are being held with the mediation of Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
Although the meeting between Witkoff and Araqchi lasted just two hours, and most of the communication took place via the Omani intermediary, the two officials are reported to have engaged in several minutes of direct conversation. This brief interaction is being interpreted in Washington as grounds to frame the upcoming dialogue as “direct negotiations,” in line with President Donald Trump’s previous insistence on such a format. Tehran, however, maintains that the talks remain indirect, as advocated by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In the days leading up to the talks, Steve Withkoff signalled that the United States may be willing to make significant concessions. Media outlets have since reported that Washington no longer explicitly opposes Iran’s continued development of its nuclear programme, provided that it excludes any military applications. Additionally, two contentious topics — Iran’s ballistic missile production and its support for armed non-state actors aligned with the so-called “axis of resistance” — are reportedly excluded from the negotiating agenda.
The United States’ focus on nuclear weapons capability rather than broader regional concerns is unlikely to satisfy Israel. Israeli officials have previously warned of direct threats from Iran, including missile attacks, and argue that the current American approach underestimates these security risks. Past Israeli responses, enabled by allied support and pre-emptive measures, have prevented Iranian missiles from reaching Israeli airspace.
Observers note that the style of diplomacy exhibited by Steve Witkoff mirrors that seen in his consultations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The emphasis on isolating a single issue — nuclear capability — while sidelining the interests of other regional actors, appears to define the US approach to the upcoming talks. Tehran, for its part, is seen as having a clear interest in prolonging the process. By extending negotiations, Iran maintains its technical capacity to produce nuclear weapons at a later stage, without necessarily breaching any current agreement.
The positions currently under discussion are broadly similar to those put forward by the United States under the Obama administration, during which a nuclear accord was reached in 2015. Under that deal, Iran curtailed large parts of its nuclear stockpile in exchange for sanctions relief but retained the capability to resume weapons development should sufficient materials become available. Following the US withdrawal from the agreement under President Trump, Western intelligence assessments have indicated that Iran is now in a position to produce multiple nuclear warheads in short order.
Current negotiations appear to follow a comparable path. Tehran may agree to relinquish access to certain nuclear materials while preserving the expertise and infrastructure needed for future weapons production. This strategy would minimise the risk of a military strike from the US while keeping open the possibility of resuming nuclear development under a future American administration more amenable to engagement.
Despite prior categorical rejections from Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran has agreed to meet with US representatives, which some analysts interpret as a limited diplomatic success for Washington. However, the Iranian leadership is expected to continue assessing how long President Trump is prepared to tolerate stalled progress.
Further complicating the situation are the parallel contacts between Steve Withkoff and Vladimir Putin. The timing of these meetings suggests that Moscow may be positioning itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran. By portraying itself as capable of delivering Iranian concessions, Russia enhances its leverage both in the Gulf and in ongoing discussions related to the war in Ukraine.
For the US, Russian involvement may be seen as an opportunity to extract broader geopolitical concessions, particularly concerning Ukraine. Conversely, Tehran may exploit the triangular format to delay outcomes and deflect pressure. In this dynamic, both Iran and Russia may benefit from sustaining the process without committing to substantive outcomes — a tactic that could leave the United States diplomatically overextended.
The choice to appoint Steve Witkoff as the lead envoy for both the Russian and Iranian tracks has drawn scrutiny. Reports suggest that Witkoff has shown a favourable disposition towards Russian interlocutors, including Kirill Dmitriev, Moscow’s special representative for international economic cooperation. This could expose the US negotiating position to strategic manipulation.
While the forthcoming Oman meeting is officially labelled as a technical round, it underscores a broader geopolitical contest in which both Tehran and Moscow seek to maximise their advantage. Iran’s immediate goal appears to be the preservation of its nuclear infrastructure without provoking military escalation, while Russia may aim to leverage its role in Gulf diplomacy to influence Western engagement on Ukraine.
As these parallel negotiations proceed, both Iran and Russia are likely to maintain pressure on the United States by prolonging talks and withholding tangible commitments — a tactic that may define the diplomatic landscape in the months ahead.
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