The French-Israeli relationship has rarely been smooth sailing, but President Emmanuel Macron appears determined to steer it straight into a tempest.
His increasingly vocal commitment to recognising a Palestinian state—regardless of the current war raging in the region—risks not only plunging Franco-Israeli relations into crisis, but also exposing the deeper incoherence of French foreign policy.
Macron’s declaration last week that “whatever the circumstances, I have stated my determination to recognize a Palestinian state” sounded less like statesmanship and more like performative obstinacy. At a time when Israel is locked in escalating conflict with both Hamas and Iran, and as the rubble in Gaza continues to mount, Macron’s insistence on pressing ahead with unilateral recognition looks less like moral clarity and more like a reckless diplomatic indulgence.
The timing could hardly be worse. The United Nations conference in Saudi Arabia—meant to discuss the creation of a Palestinian state and co-chaired by Macron and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—was postponed due to Israel’s confrontation with Iran. Yet rather than using the delay to recalibrate, Macron has doubled down, reportedly assuring the Crown Prince of his continued intent to go it alone.
This has not gone unnoticed in Jerusalem. French diplomats were subject to a sustained diplomatic dressing-down earlier this month in Israel, with officials accusing Macron of “serving the ends of Hamas” and “supporting a terrorist state.” Such language is not the usual fare of international diplomacy. But then, neither is Macron’s latest adventure in moral posturing.
Let us be clear: Macron is not wrong to be appalled by the human cost of the war in Gaza. The scale of Palestinian casualties is harrowing, and the international community has every right to question Israel’s conduct. But recognition of statehood is not a sympathy gesture; it is a sovereign act of extraordinary consequence. And doing so in the midst of active warfare—while Hamas, the de facto rulers of Gaza, continue to fire rockets—is to entangle France in a mess for which it is not remotely prepared.
France has always had an uneasy place in the Middle East. It was once Israel’s greatest European backer, supplying it with crucial arms and nuclear know-how in the 1950s and ’60s. Then came the pivot under De Gaulle, the embrace of Arab nationalism, and the slow drift toward a more ambiguous, sometimes adversarial stance. Macron’s approach continues that tradition of inconsistency—lurching from charm offensives with Israeli leaders one week to lecturing them on morality the next.
But this time, the consequences could be far more than rhetorical. Recognition of a Palestinian state—particularly one with Hamas still very much in power—would alienate not just Israel but also Washington. The Biden administration has made clear it opposes such a move, urging allies to withhold recognition until a negotiated settlement is within reach. That Macron has chosen to spurn American advice and court Saudi partnership instead is a striking, and arguably foolish, strategic gamble.
It is difficult to see what Macron thinks he will achieve. Hamas will not be disarmed by French declarations. Israel will not suddenly reconsider its policies because Paris issues a press release. And without US backing, the proposed Palestinian state is destined to exist only on European notepaper, not on the ground.
Indeed, Macron’s ambitions may even backfire. Far from jumpstarting peace, unilateral recognition could harden Israeli opinion, embolden Hamas, and further entrench division. The Israeli view is that such a move rewards terrorism—and whether or not one agrees, the perception itself could have consequences. Even within France, the president’s position risks inflaming already sensitive communal tensions.
Miriam Rosman, an Israeli historian and expert on Franco-Israeli ties, has described Macron as “neither consequential nor coherent” in this latest episode. She is not alone. Seasoned diplomats—like the former UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi—have questioned the entire enterprise, asking the blunt but necessary question: what’s the point without Washington?
This is, ultimately, the tragedy of Macron’s foreign policy. It is often high-minded, sometimes eloquent, but rarely effective. He fancies himself a global fixer, yet consistently overestimates his leverage. From failed mediation between Putin and Zelensky, to lukewarm influence in North Africa, Macron has left a trail of grand initiatives with little to show for them.
Now, in the most combustible region on Earth, he is on the verge of yet another misstep—this time one that could have ramifications far beyond France’s borders.
France once aspired to be a global arbiter. Under Macron, it seems more intent on being a global irritant.
Main Image: © Frank van Beek / Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://www.flickr.com/photos/78392295@N06/52826081312/
