With one week remaining until Canada’s snap parliamentary election, the governing Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney retains a notable lead over its main rival, according to the latest figures from Nanos Research.
The polling, conducted between 17 and 20 April on behalf of CTV News and The Globe and Mail, places the Liberals at 44 per cent, compared with 36 per cent for the opposition Conservatives.
The survey, based on a rolling three-day sample of 1,289 respondents, has a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The figures, reported by Canadian media, confirm the Liberals’ consistent lead throughout much of the 36-day campaign.
Support for other parties remains relatively unchanged. The New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, stands at 11 per cent. The Bloc Québécois polls at six per cent, followed by the Green Party at three per cent and the People’s Party of Canada at one per cent.
Regional Distribution
Regionally, the Liberals lead in all areas except the Prairie provinces, where the Conservatives dominate. In Ontario, the Liberals hold 47 per cent support compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives, with the NDP on 12 per cent.
In Quebec, the Liberals are also ahead, polling at 42 per cent. The Bloc Québécois is second at 24 per cent, and the Conservatives follow at 22 per cent. The NDP remains at low levels in the province.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives maintain a strong lead with 54 per cent support, while the Liberals are at 35 per cent. The NDP stands at 10 per cent.
British Columbia shows recent gains for the Liberals, who now lead with 46 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives at 35 per cent and the NDP at 16 per cent.
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals maintain a reduced lead, standing at 49 per cent to the Conservatives’ 37 per cent. The NDP is at 10 per cent.
Leadership Preferences
When asked who they would prefer as prime minister, 47 per cent of respondents selected Liberal leader Mark Carney. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was preferred by 33 per cent, while NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was favoured by six per cent.
The personal popularity of Carney appears to contribute to the Liberal Party’s overall electoral advantage. The leadership contest has emerged as a defining element of the campaign, particularly as policy positions on foreign affairs, including support for Ukraine, have gained prominence.
Voter Demographics
Gender and age breakdowns in the Nanos survey point to clear divides. Among women, 50 per cent back the Liberals, 27 per cent support the Conservatives, and 13 per cent favour the NDP.
Among men, the Conservatives lead with 45 per cent support, compared with 38 per cent for the Liberals and eight per cent for the NDP.
Age remains a significant factor in voting intentions. Voters under 35 tend to favour the Conservatives (43 per cent), while the Liberals trail at 37 per cent. Eleven per cent in this group back the NDP.
In the 35 to 54 age group, Conservatives also lead with 43 per cent, ahead of the Liberals at 37 per cent and the NDP at 11 per cent.
The Liberals perform strongest among older voters. Fifty-two per cent of those aged 55 and above said they would vote Liberal, compared with 32 per cent for the Conservatives and seven per cent for the NDP.
Campaign Context
The 2025 federal election, set for 28 April, was triggered amid economic uncertainty and escalating trade tensions with the United States. One of the central issues of the campaign has been Canada–US relations, particularly in light of renewed trade disputes initiated by US President Donald Trump.
Candidates have also engaged in exchanges over foreign policy priorities, including support for Ukraine. The discussion has gained particular traction among diaspora communities and international observers.
While the Liberals maintain a national lead, analysts suggest regional shifts and turnout variations may still influence the final outcome. Both major parties are expected to intensify efforts in competitive regions such as Ontario and British Columbia in the final days before polling.
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