A recent investigative development has revealed Moscow’s strategic plans for post-Soviet nations, thanks to independent reports by the Financial Times and Azerbaijani media outlet Haqqin.az.
Without direct collaboration, both media sources identified key elements of Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, particularly regarding its influence in Central Asia and beyond. The investigation sheds light on how the Kremlin perceives its diminishing control over former Soviet states and the strategies it is employing to counteract this decline.
On 10 February 2025, journalists from Haqqin.az discovered an article published in the Financial Times titled Russia’s fears over ex-Soviet nations laid bare in leaked paper. Written by Max Seddon and Chris Cook, the piece was based on a leaked Kremlin document detailing Russia’s foreign policy objectives.
Recognising the significance of the material, Azerbaijani journalist Farhad Mamedov quickly expanded on the FT’s revelations, publishing an analysis within hours. His article provided further insight into Moscow’s plans and their implications for Azerbaijan and Central Asia, underlining the region’s shifting allegiances and Moscow’s declining influence.
The Impact of the Ukraine War on Russian Influence
According to the leaked report, which was presented in April 2024 by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the Ukraine war has severely impacted Russia’s relationships with its closest allies. The document, intended for a closed Kremlin strategy session, acknowledged the disruptive effect of Western sanctions and Moscow’s need to recalibrate its geopolitical strategies.
The analysis within the report highlighted that Western economic measures and diplomatic interventions have significantly eroded Russia’s trade relationships within the post-Soviet space, compelling these countries to seek alternative economic partnerships. As a response, Moscow envisions positioning itself as the nucleus of a Eurasian economic zone designed to challenge the dominance of the United States, the European Union, and China.
In an attempt to regain influence, the Kremlin is working towards establishing a new geopolitical framework that would extend beyond immediate trade relations.
The leaked document elaborates on a broader vision of an interconnected Eurasian trade bloc, which, according to Russian strategists, would grant Moscow and its partners reciprocal access to raw materials, financial networks, and transport infrastructure.
This project is framed as an alternative global order, a counterweight to Western influence, aiming to integrate post-Soviet nations with key players in the Global South.
The document further reveals that Russia intends to leverage shared historical ties with these nations to maintain its regional dominance.
However, the report concedes that the challenge is formidable, given that several Central Asian states have been actively reducing their dependence on Russia and exploring Western-oriented alliances.
Shifting Alliances in the Post-Soviet Space
One of the most striking aspects of the leaked Kremlin document is its admission that some post-Soviet states are not only distancing themselves from Russia but are also actively engaging with Western institutions and adapting their economies to global markets that exclude Moscow.
The report points to Kazakhstan as an example of this shift, noting that the country has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, refused to recognise its territorial claims, and sought to demonstrate compliance with Western sanctions. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan has deepened its ties with Moscow and has played a role in facilitating the circumvention of Western restrictions.
The document also draws attention to Belarus, which it describes as Moscow’s most significant success in maintaining regional influence. The analysis contrasts President Alexander Lukashenko’s 2018 rhetoric about economic diversification away from Russia with his 2024 declaration of unwavering unity with Moscow.
However, the report acknowledges that the Eurasian Economic Union, an entity led by Moscow and encompassing Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, is grappling with structural issues, including financial instability, the impact of sanctions, and logistical hurdles caused by Russia’s exclusion from the SWIFT financial messaging system.
Russia’s Global Strategy and Challenges
Mamedov’s analysis in Haqqin.az builds upon these revelations, offering an Azerbaijani perspective on the unfolding geopolitical realignment. His report argues that Moscow’s aspiration to create a “Greater Eurasia” is not a new development but rather a continuation of a long-term strategy that predates Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
According to Mamedov, the plan entails reintegrating former Soviet republics under Moscow’s leadership, forming an economic and political bloc with a distinct identity separate from Western alliances.
He emphasises that a key component of this strategy was the anticipated full occupation of Ukraine, which the Kremlin had counted on as a linchpin in its efforts to construct this new order. However, the failure to swiftly capture Kyiv and the prolonged war have severely undermined these ambitions, forcing Russia to revise its approach.
Beyond economic considerations, the leaked document suggests that Russia is contemplating the establishment of a military dimension to its proposed Eurasian alliance. By fostering closer defence ties with former Soviet states and securing strategic partnerships in the Global South, Moscow aims to build a counterweight to NATO and Western military alliances. This ambition aligns with broader Russian efforts to promote an alternative security architecture that challenges the Euro-Atlantic framework.
Despite these aspirations, the document concedes that Russia faces significant obstacles, including the reluctance of many post-Soviet nations to deepen their dependence on Moscow.
The Future of Russian Influence in Eurasia
While Russia remains determined to reassert its dominance in Eurasia, the leaked report highlights the extent of its challenges. The erosion of traditional alliances, shifting economic priorities, and increasing Western engagement in the region have complicated Moscow’s efforts to solidify its position.
The findings in both the Financial Times investigation and Mamedov’s analysis illustrate that the post-Soviet landscape is evolving in ways that are increasingly unfavourable to Russian interests.
Additionally, the report acknowledges that Western pressure has successfully threatened Central Asian countries into compliance with sanctions, making it increasingly difficult for Moscow to bypass trade restrictions.
At the same time, Russia’s allies have profited from sanctions by absorbing businesses that once operated under Moscow’s control. This trend has led to a significant reorganisation of regional trade flows, with Central Asian nations demanding higher commissions to compensate for the risks of violating Western restrictions.
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