Lebanon’s prolonged presidential stalemate concluded on 9 January 2025 with the election of Joseph Aoun, the former army chief, as the country’s president. Aoun’s ascension was made possible through a concerted diplomatic effort by the United States and Saudi Arabia, reflecting his strong ties to both Washington and Riyadh.
This development ends a political vacuum that had persisted since October 2022, when Michel Aoun, Lebanon’s previous president, concluded his term. Michel Aoun, unrelated to Joseph Aoun, had been aligned with the Iran-backed Hezbollah, and attempts to secure a successor over the past two years repeatedly failed, exacerbating tensions between Lebanon’s rival political factions.
Election and Swearing-In
Joseph Aoun was elected after two rounds of parliamentary voting. In the second round, he secured 99 out of 128 votes, aided by an unexpected endorsement from Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc. The bloc abstained from the first round of voting, a move they described as a “message” of their role as “protectors of sovereignty.” However, their eventual support in the second round was framed as an effort to promote “national cohesion.”
Aoun immediately resigned from his position as army chief and appeared in parliament dressed in civilian attire to be sworn in as president. In his inaugural address, he declared the start of a “new era” for Lebanon, pledging to address the country’s entrenched political and economic crises.
Promises of Reform
Aoun’s acceptance speech contained pointed references to Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most powerful non-state armed group. The president vowed to “monopolize weapons” under state authority, implicitly challenging Hezbollah’s arsenal. For decades, the group has functioned as a parallel military force, officially tasked with defending Lebanon against Israel.
The speech also hinted at a shift in Lebanon’s defensive posture, with Aoun proposing a state-led “defensive strategy” against Israel, which is classified as an enemy state under Lebanese law. He stated that his administration would focus on ending the “Israeli occupation” and countering aggression without reliance on Hezbollah.
A Changing Regional Landscape
Aoun’s election comes amid significant geopolitical shifts in the region. Hezbollah, once a dominant force across multiple Middle Eastern countries, has been weakened by a series of setbacks, including a conflict with Israel in the autumn of 2024. This war resulted in substantial losses for Hezbollah and coincided with the December downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of the group.
Additionally, a US-brokered ceasefire agreement signed on 27 November 2024 has required Hezbollah to withdraw from the Lebanon-Israel border region. Israeli forces are also obligated to leave Lebanese territory by the end of January 2025, further diminishing Hezbollah’s military influence.
The Lebanese army, under Joseph Aoun’s leadership until now, did not engage directly in the conflict but is central to implementing the ceasefire agreement. Aoun’s commitment to consolidating state authority over military matters aligns with these developments and represents a departure from the status quo.
Political Context
Lebanon operates under a confessional power-sharing system, which mandates that the presidency be held by a Maronite Christian, the prime ministership by a Sunni Muslim, and the parliamentary speakership by a Shia Muslim. This system, intended to maintain balance among the country’s diverse religious communities, often contributes to political gridlock.
The presidency has long been a focal point of contention between Lebanon’s pro-Western and pro-Iranian blocs. The protracted negotiations following Michel Aoun’s departure underscored these divisions, with the election of Joseph Aoun seen as a victory for Western-backed interests.
A Difficult Path Ahead
While Joseph Aoun’s election signals a possible reset for Lebanon, the challenges before him are formidable. The country remains mired in an economic crisis marked by hyperinflation, a devalued currency, and widespread poverty. Politically, the state’s institutions have been paralysed by factionalism, and public trust in leadership is at an all-time low.
Furthermore, Aoun’s promise to bring all weapons under state control may provoke resistance from Hezbollah, which continues to wield considerable influence despite its recent losses. Balancing the demands of disarmament with the need for national unity will test the new president’s leadership.
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