Tensions between India and Pakistan have reached a critical point, with the Pakistani government warning that an Indian military strike could occur within hours or days.
Islamabad has issued a statement cautioning New Delhi about the potential consequences of any such action. India has not confirmed these claims, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a high-level security meeting earlier today involving senior government and military officials.
In a further sign of deteriorating relations, Indian authorities have reportedly prohibited Pakistan International Airlines from entering Indian airspace. These developments indicate a worsening of the security situation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours following a recent terrorist incident in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The possibility of open conflict has drawn international concern. The United States, which initially maintained a neutral stance, has now become more actively involved. Just days ago, President Donald Trump stated that India and Pakistan should resolve their differences independently. Similarly, the US Department of State emphasised that Washington did not intend to intervene. However, this position appears to be shifting.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has held direct conversations with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. In both discussions, the United States called for restraint and signalled its intention to begin separate diplomatic engagements with both governments. While these moves could represent the start of a de-escalation process, it remains unclear whether they have come too late to prevent armed conflict.
Other global actors have so far limited their responses to expressions of concern rather than tangible diplomatic initiatives. As a result, questions persist over which country, if any, possesses sufficient leverage to deter India from launching a potential military operation.
Regional analysts suggest that the Indian armed forces are now considerably better prepared for large-scale conflict than in previous decades. In the past, there was a relative parity between Indian and Pakistani military capabilities. This no longer appears to be the case. Some observers believe that Prime Minister Modi may now seek to use the current security environment to demonstrate India’s regional influence, possibly by attempting to assert control over disputed territories in Kashmir—an area that has remained contested since the partition of British India in 1947.
The Kashmir conflict has been at the centre of multiple wars and countless skirmishes between India and Pakistan. During the Cold War, the two states relied on different external backers: Pakistan on the United States and India on the Soviet Union. On several occasions, both Moscow and Washington acted to prevent full-scale war in the region. The current geopolitical landscape is notably different. Both India and Pakistan are pursuing closer ties with the United States, which itself is attempting to balance its interests in South Asia without alienating either party.
China, meanwhile, maintains close political and military cooperation with Pakistan but is also invested in expanding its economic relationship with India. Beijing’s position in the event of open warfare remains ambiguous. A prolonged Indo-Pakistani conflict could divert Western corporate investment away from India, potentially benefiting China economically. Some American companies had viewed relocation to India as a way to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, particularly in light of Washington’s ongoing trade confrontation with Beijing. A regional war could delay or reverse such plans, giving China time to stabilise its own economy.
From Pakistan’s perspective, support could come from Sunni-majority Muslim countries, which may view any Indian military action as a threat to regional Muslim populations. At the same time, Iran—embroiled in its own delicate negotiations with the United States—might view a conflict as an opportunity to undermine Sunni regimes and shift the regional balance of power. Tehran may calculate that a South Asian war would force Washington to redirect attention from the Iranian nuclear file to the more immediate risk of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan.
Russia also has an interest in any major diversion of Western attention. President Vladimir Putin may see a large-scale Indo-Pakistani war as advantageous, as it could shift focus away from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A prolonged conflict in South Asia might allow Moscow to gain time or strategic advantage in its ongoing military operations and diplomatic engagements with Western powers.
In summary, the current stand-off between India and Pakistan has become deeply entangled in global power dynamics. Diplomatic initiatives have begun, but the window for effective de-escalation may be closing rapidly. The involvement of nuclear-armed states, both directly and indirectly, adds a level of risk that could have far-reaching consequences well beyond South Asia. Whether restraint will prevail in New Delhi and Islamabad remains uncertain.
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