France’s ongoing political crisis has reached a critical juncture with the appointment of François Bayrou as Prime Minister. His selection, following a year that has seen four different individuals occupy the post, demonstrates the profound challenges facing Emmanuel Macron’s presidency and the French government.
A Political Crisis Deepens
The French National Assembly’s recent vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier’s government has further destabilised Macron’s administration. Barnier’s government, which relied on the support of the Republican Party and Macron’s centrist allies, collapsed when Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the far-left coalition New People’s Front united against it. Macron’s efforts to establish a stable coalition have been thwarted by a fragmented political landscape, leaving him with no clear majority.
Bayrou’s appointment reflects Macron’s pragmatic but constrained options. Initially, the president sought to form a government led by left-wing parties, including the Socialists and Greens. However, escalating demands from Socialist Party representatives—who insisted on controlling the government outright—forced Macron to pivot towards a centrist solution.
François Bayrou: A Centrist Veteran
Bayrou’s extensive political experience makes him a strategic choice in uncertain times. The 73-year-old mayor of Pau has long been a prominent figure in French politics, serving as education minister under François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac and as the founder of the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem). His leadership of the European Democratic Party within the Renew Europe alliance in the European Parliament further cements his pro-European stance.
While Bayrou is a centrist with a right-leaning orientation, he has demonstrated an ability to navigate across the political spectrum. Notably, he supported Socialist François Hollande in the 2012 presidential elections, signalling a willingness to compromise when necessary. His recent exoneration from allegations of misuse of European parliamentary funds has revived his political prospects, paving the way for his return to national prominence.
Challenges Ahead for Bayrou
Bayrou inherits a divided parliament and a precarious mandate. While his centrist credentials may appeal to moderate factions, the opposition remains deeply entrenched. Far-left and far-right parties have already signalled their intention to challenge his leadership through motions of no confidence. Moreover, the upcoming negotiations on France’s 2025 budget, which require significant deficit reductions, will test Bayrou’s ability to forge consensus.
The National Rally has indicated a conditional willingness to engage constructively, provided the government avoids crossing its “red lines.” However, Bayrou’s history of advocating fiscal prudence may alienate both the far left and elements of the centre-right, complicating efforts to secure parliamentary support.
A Positive Signal for Ukraine
Bayrou’s appointment is particularly noteworthy for Ukraine. Unlike several figures within the French Republican Party, Bayrou has maintained a consistent stance in support of European integration and Ukraine’s sovereignty. He has previously characterised the war in Ukraine as a challenge not only for Europe but for global stability.
Crucially, Bayrou has endorsed Macron’s policies of military and economic assistance to Kyiv. His track record suggests that he will continue to back initiatives aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s defences and European integration. This continuity is critical as the EU navigates complex geopolitical dynamics involving Russia.
A Balancing Act for Macron
Macron’s decision to appoint Bayrou reflects his attempt to stabilise France’s volatile political environment while advancing his broader European agenda. By selecting a centrist with cross-party appeal, Macron aims to protect his administration from further no-confidence votes and maintain a semblance of continuity.
However, the durability of Bayrou’s government remains uncertain. The Socialists, having rejected participation in any coalition, remain a formidable opposition force. Meanwhile, Bayrou’s need to reconcile competing demands from moderates and hardliners within the Assembly could undermine his authority.
Outlook
The stakes are high for both France and Macron’s presidency. Failure to secure a stable government risks exacerbating the country’s political and economic crises, undermining public confidence in democratic institutions. For Bayrou, the challenge lies in translating his extensive experience into effective governance in an unprecedentedly divided political landscape.
For Ukraine, Bayrou’s appointment offers a degree of reassurance. His pro-European credentials and alignment with Macron’s policies suggest that France will remain a reliable partner in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.
Ultimately, Bayrou’s success or failure will hinge on his ability to bridge deep divides within the French political system. His first major test will be surviving a no-confidence vote, which could define his tenure as Prime Minister and shape the trajectory of Macron’s presidency.
