Speaking at the Kyiv Security Forum on 8 May, European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius warned that Western countries risk repeating five critical historical mistakes in their approach to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Drawing direct parallels with lessons from the Second World War, Kubilius outlined what he views as strategic errors that could have far-reaching consequences for European and transatlantic security.
1. Insufficient Support for Ukraine
Kubilius identified the first potential mistake as the West’s inadequate assistance to Ukraine. While acknowledging that the European Union and the United States have each provided approximately €40 billion annually since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, he noted that this figure represents less than 0.1% of their GDP. He further pointed out that these amounts remain lower than what the same states allocate to their own defence budgets.
“Ukraine, by defending itself, is also defending the rest of the West from the same threat,” Kubilius stated, characterising the current level of support as disproportionate to the broader strategic interest at stake. He criticised what he called a “non-logical approach” in circumstances where Ukrainian resistance directly contributes to the containment of Russian military ambitions.
2. Ambiguity in Identifying the Aggressor
The second mistake, according to Kubilius, lies in the failure by some Western actors to clearly identify the aggressor in the conflict. While he did not name specific countries or leaders, the Commissioner pointed to ongoing ambiguities in political discourse that, he argued, risk clouding the fundamental reality of Russian aggression and Ukrainian self-defence.
He warned that such equivocation undermines both the moral clarity and the political cohesion needed for a unified Western response.
3. Illusions of Normalisation with Putin
Kubilius described the third mistake as a belief—present in some Western capitals—that relations with the Kremlin can return to normal following a pause or cessation in hostilities. He rejected the notion that peaceful coexistence with Vladimir Putin’s regime is achievable or desirable, highlighting NATO’s current assessment of Russia as the principal threat to European security.
“It is impossible to plan ‘friendly relations’ with the greatest threat while simultaneously demanding an increase in defence spending to deter that same threat,” Kubilius said. His remarks appeared to allude to US President Donald Trump’s stated intention to pursue a less confrontational relationship with Moscow.
The Commissioner warned that enacting a policy of friendship towards Putin would embolden Russian domestic and foreign aggression, destabilise Western alliances, and inspire other authoritarian regimes to adopt similarly aggressive postures.
4. Recognition of Crimea’s Annexation
The fourth mistake Kubilius outlined concerns the potential acceptance of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. He drew a historical analogy with the Munich Agreement of 1938, in which Western powers acceded to Nazi Germany’s dismemberment of Czechoslovakia.
“History clearly teaches us that, at pivotal moments, leaders can choose to act as Chamberlain, or as Churchill, Roosevelt, or Reagan,” Kubilius said.
Kubilius argued that pressuring Ukraine to surrender any part of its territory, including Crimea, would amount to a repetition of the appeasement policies that failed to prevent the Second World War.
5. Blocking Ukraine’s NATO Accession
Lastly, Kubilius warned against denying Ukraine the prospect of NATO membership. He contended that Russia’s opposition to Ukrainian accession is rooted not in fears of NATO aggression, but in concern that NATO membership would shield Ukraine from further Russian military action.
“Russia demands that Ukraine never become a NATO member not because it fears a NATO attack via Ukraine, but because it fears NATO will protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression,” Commissioner Kubilius stated.
Kubilius’s remarks come amid heightened discussions within NATO regarding long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, as well as increasing political pressure from some member states to reconsider enlargement timelines.
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