Recent intelligence assessments from the United States and European sources indicate that Ukrainian forces operating in Russia’s Kursk region have faced significant military pressure but are not encircled, as previously claimed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump.
According to three U.S. and European officials familiar with intelligence reports, Ukrainian troops have lost ground in recent engagements, but the notion of their complete entrapment is incorrect.
Intelligence from U.S. agencies, including the CIA, has been shared with the White House in the past week, contradicting Trump’s repeated assertions that Ukrainian forces are surrounded.
Despite this intelligence assessment, Trump has maintained his stance, reiterating the claim of Ukrainian encirclement in a speech at Washington’s Kennedy Center and in a televised interview with Fox News.
On social media, Trump also stated that he had urged Putin to spare the lives of thousands of Ukrainian troops whom he described as “completely surrounded and vulnerable.” Putin reportedly responded that he would do so if they surrendered.
Putin’s statements on March 13 that Ukrainian forces in Kursk were trapped and faced the ultimatum to “surrender or die” have been dismissed by analysts as misinformation.
Experts suggest that the Russian president is attempting to leverage such claims in ceasefire negotiations, portraying Russia as offering concessions while positioning itself as the dominant force in the conflict.
The White House has not directly addressed the intelligence findings but referred inquiries to a joint statement from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.
The statement referenced Trump’s recent conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, during which both leaders agreed to continue intelligence sharing on the situation in Kursk.
Zelenskiy, meanwhile, has rejected Putin’s claims, acknowledging that Ukrainian troops are in a difficult position but affirming that they remain operational and have not been cut off. His office has not issued a formal response to Trump’s remarks.
Since the Ukrainian incursion into western Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024, Kyiv has lost the majority of the ground it initially seized. Reports indicate that while Ukraine once controlled approximately 500 square miles of territory, it now holds only 20 to 30 square miles. However, intelligence analysts and military experts assert that Russian forces have not fully encircled the remaining Ukrainian units.
On March 14, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War confirmed that it had observed no geolocated evidence supporting claims that Ukrainian forces in Kursk or elsewhere along the frontline had been surrounded.
In a recent phone call between Trump and Putin, the Russian president reportedly pledged to halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days. This fell short of the full ceasefire Trump has advocated for, which Zelenskiy has signaled Ukraine would be willing to accept.
Military analysts suggest that both sides are positioning themselves for potential negotiations. Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, remarked that Putin’s claims of an imminent Ukrainian surrender align with his broader strategy of portraying Russian strength and the inevitability of a Russian victory. “This is likely part of Putin’s effort to demonstrate that resistance is futile,” Cancian stated.
Despite recent setbacks, Ukraine continues to hold key positions in Kursk, and Western intelligence sources maintain that the situation remains fluid.
Read also:
Russia Amassing Troops for Possible Strike on Sumy Region, Zelenskyy Warns
