The head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has warned that China is “on a dangerous course” after Beijing once again staged large-scale military drills encircling Taiwan — manoeuvres that Western officials increasingly view not as mere exercises but as dry runs for an impending invasion.
Admiral Samuel Paparo delivered the stark warning during the annual LANPAC Symposium and Exposition in Honolulu, where senior military officers from more than 30 countries — including Taiwan — gathered on 13 May to deepen cooperation in the face of what many now regard as a looming strategic showdown in the Indo-Pacific.
“This is not sabre-rattling,” Paparo said in his keynote address. “These are rehearsals, not exercises. And they are growing in scale and intensity.”
The conference, hosted by the Association of the U.S. Army, focused on enhancing intelligence-sharing, joint military readiness, and interoperability among allied forces. But behind the usual language of defence diplomacy lay a sense of urgency. With Beijing accelerating its military modernisation and expanding its regional presence, the spectre of a forced reunification of Taiwan is no longer dismissed as a remote scenario.
According to assessments shared by the Pentagon and Taiwanese officials, China could possess the military capacity to attempt an invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027 — a date etched into the strategic calculus of U.S. and allied planners.
The numbers are sobering. Paparo revealed that in one day last year, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) mobilised 152 warships, three-quarters of its amphibious fleet, and dozens of army brigades for operations around Taiwan — a dress rehearsal in all but name. Similar displays have followed in recent weeks, reinforcing concerns that Beijing is not merely posturing.
The challenge is stark. China enjoys the advantages of geography, a massive stockpile of anti-ship missiles, and a lead in the development of hypersonic weaponry. Taiwan, for its part, is building a defence strategy around the idea of delaying a Chinese breakthrough long enough for U.S. and allied support to intervene decisively.
Admiral Paparo outlined how that support might materialise. In the critical opening hours of a conflict, he said, U.S. and allied forces must quickly strike key Chinese military nodes — including radar installations, missile launchers, and command centres — to prevent the PLA from disrupting coalition operations.
This is where new U.S. capabilities could tip the balance. Long-range precision-strike weapons, including hypersonic missiles capable of sinking ships from land-based positions, have entered the American arsenal. These, Paparo insisted, are “game-changers that fundamentally alter China’s risk calculus.”
The message is clear: any Chinese military action would come at enormous cost.
In addition, rapid-reaction strike forces could be deployed alongside allies in the region, launching operations from island bases near Taiwan while providing real-time battlefield intelligence. Such actions, Paparo said, would create “operational space” for American naval and air forces to engage effectively and push back against PLA advances.
Yet geography remains a thorn in Washington’s side. While the U.S. maintains some 380,000 troops across the Indo-Pacific, relatively few are stationed near flashpoints like the Taiwan Strait or the contested South China Sea. Pentagon officials refer to this as the “tyranny of distance” — a strategic disadvantage that requires nimble, forward-deployed forces and deeper cooperation with regional allies.
Among those allies is Japan, whose top ground forces officer, General Morishita Yasunori, also addressed the LANPAC forum. “In my nearly four decades of service, I have never seen the security environment so tense,” he said, adding that China’s military assertiveness demands that Japan be prepared “for any scenario.”
Beijing, for its part, maintains that its military drills are defensive in nature and part of its sovereign right to ensure national unity. It continues to denounce U.S. support for Taiwan as a dangerous provocation.
But the mood in Honolulu last week was anything but conciliatory. The atmosphere was defined not by cold war paranoia but by the cold logic of military planning in an era of rising risk. As Admiral Paparo put it, the priority now is not merely deterrence — but readiness.
With 2027 fast approaching, the window to prepare is closing. Whether China ultimately chooses confrontation or restraint, the allies’ message from Hawaii was unmistakable: they intend to be ready for either.
Main Image: By Baycrest – Own work, CC BY-SA 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=60980675
