China has made a strategic bid to outmanoeuvre Russia in the race to build Kazakhstan’s first modern nuclear power plant, offering to construct the facility at nearly half the price proposed by its competitors.
The Chinese National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) has proposed building two reactor units with a total capacity of 2.4 gigawatts for $5.47 billion, significantly undercutting preliminary cost estimates from other bidders.
The offer was disclosed following a late-May meeting between CNNC’s head of nuclear safety, Dong Baotong, and Almasadam Satkaliyev, a senior representative of Kazakhstan’s Atomic Energy Agency. According to Kazakh outlet Kursiv, the Chinese side also pledged to transfer nuclear technology and to provide Kazakhstan full control over the nuclear fuel cycle — a move likely intended to strengthen the appeal of its proposal.
The Kazakh delegation reportedly expressed interest in learning from China’s experience in ensuring nuclear and environmental safety throughout all phases of such projects. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) subsequently confirmed Kazakhstan’s readiness to cooperate with China in the area of nuclear energy development.
The Chinese proposal stands out not only for its relatively low cost but also for its broader strategic implications. Kazakhstan, which possesses the world’s second-largest uranium reserves after Australia and is home to Kazatomprom, the top global uranium producer, has been actively weighing options to re-enter the nuclear energy sector. The country’s existing nuclear history dates back to the Soviet-era Shevchenko plant, decommissioned in 1999 due to proliferation concerns linked to plutonium production.
The push for nuclear energy in Kazakhstan was revived with a national referendum held on 6 October 2024. Of those who participated, 71.12% supported the construction of a new nuclear plant, while 26.15% voted against it. Following the referendum, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced plans to launch the country’s first new nuclear power station by 2035.
The selected site is the village of Ulken, located in the Zhambyl District of Almaty Region on the shores of Lake Balkhash. It is intended to be the first of at least three major nuclear power stations planned for the country. Construction is expected to be closely monitored by the IAEA and the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) to ensure adherence to international safety standards and to limit opportunities for corruption.
In the initial stage of the selection process, Kazakhstan shortlisted four international candidates: CNNC, Russia’s Rosatom, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP), and France’s Électricité de France (EDF). The Ministry of Energy indicated that the final decision would be based on economic viability, technological reliability, and environmental safety. Earlier assessments had suggested the cost of the plant would range between $10 billion and $15 billion. In late 2024, First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar warned that costs could rise by 50% due to inflation in materials and services.
By comparison, CNNC’s $5.47 billion offer, inclusive of local management of the fuel cycle and technology transfer, presents a direct challenge to Rosatom’s traditional dominance in the post-Soviet nuclear market. For Moscow, the loss of the Kazakh contract would not only represent a commercial setback but also a geopolitical one, weakening Russian influence in Central Asia at a time of increasing competition from China.
While Rosatom has not publicly disclosed the financial details of its own proposal, the average cost of Russian-built plants in recent years suggests a higher price tag than China’s offer. French and South Korean proposals are also likely to be more expensive, though potentially offering different strategic or safety advantages.
A final selection has yet to be announced, and the government has not specified a deadline. However, with the 2035 commissioning target and growing domestic energy demand, a decision is expected in the near future. In the meantime, international bidders will likely continue to lobby for position in a high-stakes contest that blends economics, technology, and regional power dynamics.
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