A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, brokered by US President Joseph Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, came into effect early this morning at 4 a.m. The agreement, which aims to halt military activities in Lebanon for the next 60 days, is designed to reduce regional tensions while addressing the role of Hezbollah as a parallel military force in Lebanon.
Terms and Objectives
Under the agreement, all armed organisations in Lebanon, including Hezbollah, have committed to refraining from offensive actions against Israel. In return, Israel has agreed to suspend offensive operations targeting Lebanese territory. Both sides retain the right to self-defence, a provision that could complicate the ceasefire’s interpretation and enforcement.
The Lebanese Army and national security forces are now the sole authorities permitted to transport weapons and deploy troops in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese government will oversee all arms production, supply, and sales, dismantling unauthorised facilities and confiscating illicit weapons. Military positions deemed inconsistent with these commitments are to be dismantled.
A joint Israeli-Lebanese monitoring structure has been established to oversee compliance, reporting violations to a committee supported by United Nations peacekeepers. Lebanese forces have been deployed to secure all border crossings and the demarcated southern zone. Concurrently, Israel has begun a phased withdrawal from areas near the Blue Line.
US Mediation and Strategic Context
The United States is facilitating negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to define an internationally recognised border. This effort is part of a broader initiative to stabilise relations and prevent further escalation.
Despite these measures, scepticism remains high. Israeli far-right politicians and critics within Netanyahu’s coalition argue that Hezbollah is unlikely to comply, viewing the ceasefire as an opportunity for the group to rearm. Hezbollah’s strong political ties in Lebanon, including its alliance with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, raise concerns about the Lebanese government’s ability to enforce disarmament.
Implementation Challenges
The agreement’s success hinges on several factors. Hezbollah, which has sustained heavy losses in leadership and infrastructure, remains a formidable force with Iranian backing. Critics suggest that Iran’s approval of the ceasefire reflects a calculated strategy to allow Hezbollah to regroup.
Questions also linger over why a truce has been secured in Lebanon, where no Israeli hostages are held, while the conflict with Hamas in Gaza continues. Some speculate that the Biden administration’s involvement may have been driven by US strategic interests in mitigating broader regional instability ahead of 2025, when a new US administration could shift policy directions.
Balancing Strategic Pressures
Israel’s government faces the dual challenge of addressing immediate security threats while managing resource constraints from concurrent conflicts. The ongoing war in Gaza, which erupted after the October 2023 attacks, continues to strain military and political capacities. By agreeing to the ceasefire in Lebanon, Netanyahu’s administration may be seeking to concentrate its efforts on Hamas in Gaza while alleviating pressure on its northern front.
However, the agreement’s fragile nature is underscored by the Israeli government’s decision not to recommend that evacuated northern residents return home. This precaution reflects concerns that hostilities could resume if Hezbollah uses the 60-day period to rebuild its military capabilities.
Looking Ahead
The next two months will serve as a critical test for the agreement. While the ceasefire offers a temporary reprieve, its long-term viability depends on effective enforcement by Lebanese authorities and the willingness of both parties to de-escalate. The involvement of international monitors and UN peacekeepers may bolster compliance, but risks of renewed conflict remain high.
For Israel, the truce may offer an opportunity to focus on Gaza and recalibrate its broader strategy. For Lebanon, it represents a chance to assert national sovereignty over armed groups while navigating the complexities of Hezbollah’s political influence.
