As reported by The New York Times, U.S. President Joe Biden has granted Ukraine the authority to use long-range ATACMS missiles against Russian forces, marking a decisive shift in Western policy on the conflict. This authorisation comes as an unexpected response to Russia’s recent deployment of North Korean troops in its campaign against Ukraine.
According to U.S. officials, the ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 300 kilometres depending on the model, may first be used by Ukraine to target Russian and North Korean forces concentrated in Russia’s Kursk region. These missiles provide a strategic advantage, allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory, hitting military installations, equipment, and supply lines.
Rationale for Biden’s Decision
The decision is said to reflect the increasing complexity of the Ukraine conflict, particularly in light of Russia’s alliance with North Korea. Sources close to the U.S. administration indicate that Washington’s intention is to signal to North Korea that their involvement comes with high risks. The presence of North Korean troops has raised concerns among U.S. officials about the potential for an escalation, though many believe this risk is manageable.
American officials stated that Biden’s authorisation is a calibrated response designed to deter further involvement from Pyongyang. Analysts note that, while the immediate military impact may be limited, this policy shift is aimed at conveying a clear message: North Korea’s forces are vulnerable and should not be deployed in support of Moscow’s war effort. Biden’s approval for Ukraine to use ATACMS, however, includes potential provisions for expanding their usage to other Russian territories if necessary.
Potential Impact and Risks
Biden’s decision highlights a major shift in the strategic calculations of the U.S. and its allies. The ATACMS missiles would allow Ukraine to target logistical hubs, ammunition depots, and other critical infrastructure within Russian borders. This could significantly hinder the operational capabilities of both Russian and North Korean forces. Ukrainian officials anticipate that these strikes may help weaken the combined Russian-North Korean offensive, which has seen heavy deployments aimed at securing strategic positions in Ukraine.
However, concerns persist within Washington that such actions could prompt a retaliatory response from Moscow. Vladimir Putin has previously warned that NATO’s increased involvement in the conflict might be interpreted as an act of war against Russia. Some U.S. officials share these apprehensions, cautioning that strikes within Russian territory could provoke severe reactions. Despite these risks, other officials consider such fears overstated, viewing the strikes as a necessary measure to contain the growing aggression from the Russia-North Korea alliance.
European Allies’ Stance
The decision has drawn mixed reactions from European allies. British and French leaders have previously voiced support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for long-range strike capabilities. However, they were reluctant to proceed without U.S. consent.
Now, with Biden’s authorisation in place, the strategic alignment among Western powers on Ukraine’s military support appears stronger. France, which has previously supplied SCALP missiles to Ukraine, is expected to closely monitor the impact of the ATACMS authorisation as it evaluates further assistance.
Zelensky’s Response and Implications for Negotiations
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cautiously welcomed the news, stressing that the missiles would “speak for themselves.” In a recent address, Zelensky stated, “The strengthening of our capabilities is part of a victory plan I have presented to our partners.” He suggested that actions, not statements, would define Ukraine’s stance, implying that Ukraine is prepared to use the missiles without preemptive announcements.
Some analysts argue that this new development may alter the dynamics of potential negotiations. Should Ukraine’s strikes prove successful in weakening Russian forces in the Kursk region, Kyiv could find itself in a stronger bargaining position, with Russian-held territory potentially used as leverage in any future talks. However, the outcome of this new authorisation remains uncertain, with the potential for escalation on both sides.
Context: North Korean Military Involvement
The deployment of North Korean troops by Russia has reportedly bolstered Russian forces facing manpower and logistical challenges. This alliance has introduced a new layer of complexity to the conflict, with reports suggesting that North Korea could supply up to 100,000 soldiers. This unprecedented cooperation reflects the challenges facing Russia, which has experienced significant attrition in its ranks. Biden’s authorisation is seen as a response to this growing partnership, aiming to disrupt the alliance’s effectiveness by targeting key Russian and North Korean assets.
Strategic Signals and Future Policy
The timing of Biden’s decision is noteworthy, coming just two months before the anticipated transition of power in the U.S. While President-elect Donald Trump has indicated potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy, including a possible reduction in support for Ukraine, Biden’s move suggests a firm stance in favour of sustained support.
U.S. allies in Eastern Europe, particularly Poland, have voiced approval of Biden’s decision. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski commented, “Biden responded in a language Putin understands,” referencing Biden’s intention to counteract North Korean and Russian aggression with proportional responses. Sikorski’s statement underscores the solidarity of Eastern European states with Ukraine, as they continue to advocate for robust measures to deter Russian and North Korean advances.
Biden’s authorisation of ATACMS for Ukraine represents a pivotal moment in the ongoing war, marking a notable escalation in the types of support provided by the U.S. and its allies. The move introduces new strategic dimensions to Ukraine’s military capabilities, offering potential leverage for Kyiv in the face of escalating Russian-North Korean cooperation. However, with the prospect of intensified Russian responses, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable.
