The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that the deployment of Russia’s “Oreshnik” missile systems in Belarus does not elevate the risk of medium-range ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine or NATO member states. This development, while significant in the context of regional dynamics, is viewed as part of Russia’s broader strategy to deepen its military presence in Belarus and consolidate the Union State.
Belarus-Russia Security Agreement
During a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State on 6 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko signed a new security agreement. This pact provides for the use of “all available forces and means” under mutual defence obligations within the Union State framework.
Lukashenko publicly requested the deployment of “Oreshnik” missile systems in Belarus, with a condition that Belarusian military-political leadership would determine the targets for any potential launches. In response, Putin confirmed the potential deployment by mid-2025, emphasising that the new security agreement enables such initiatives.
Strategic Implications
The ISW highlights that the deployment is consistent with Kremlin efforts to undermine Belarusian sovereignty. Analysts describe the move as part of a longstanding strategy to integrate Belarus into the Union State and expand Russian influence in the region. While the placement of these missile systems deepens military integration, it does not materially alter the strategic threat landscape for Ukraine or NATO, according to ISW’s assessment.
The ISW also points out that Lukashenko’s request to control the operational use of these weapons reflects his attempt to maintain Belarusian sovereignty. However, the report notes that Russian personnel will retain operational control of the “Oreshnik” systems, limiting Minsk’s actual authority over the missiles.
Broader Context of Military Integration
The meeting in Minsk resulted in the signing of ten additional Union State documents, covering areas such as a shared security concept, anti-smuggling measures, consumer protection regulations, and the creation of a unified electricity market. These agreements collectively demonstrate deeper economic and political integration between Belarus and Russia.
Analysts suggest that Lukashenko’s attempts to assert autonomy in military matters are likely aimed at bolstering his negotiating position within the Union State framework. However, his historical inability to resist Moscow’s pressures raises questions about the effectiveness of such strategies.
No Escalation of Immediate Risks
Despite the heightened rhetoric from Moscow, ISW notes that the deployment of “Oreshnik” systems does not escalate the immediate risks of missile strikes. The Kremlin’s frequent references to its missile capabilities are assessed as part of its information campaigns rather than indicators of a new strategic posture.
The report also comments on Russia’s military activities outside Belarus, including the relocation of some air defence systems from the Khmeimim airbase in Syria. While the reasons for this repositioning remain unclear, it could signal resource constraints or shifting priorities amid ongoing conflicts.
Broader Trends
ISW’s assessment underscores a pattern of Russian manoeuvres aimed at consolidating its influence over Belarus while projecting strength internationally. However, such moves are occurring against a backdrop of increasing challenges for Russia, including Western sanctions, which are reportedly degrading the quality of its defence production capabilities.
Additionally, ISW highlights ongoing losses in Russia’s officer corps and persistent difficulties in replenishing its military personnel. These trends, combined with limited success in operations near Ukrainian strongholds such as Toretsk and Vuhledar, point to the continued strain on Russia’s military resources.
Strategic Implications
While the deployment of “Oreshnik” missile systems in Belarus reflects deepening military integration under the Union State, it does not introduce new immediate threats to Ukraine or NATO. Instead, it reinforces concerns about the erosion of Belarusian sovereignty and highlights Moscow’s broader strategic ambitions.
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