The arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor and a leading opposition figure in Turkey, has intensified political tensions ahead of the country’s presidential elections.
İmamoğlu, considered a strong contender against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was detained amid corruption allegations, coinciding with the annulment of his university degree—a requirement for presidential candidacy in Turkey.
A Political Opponent Removed from the Race
İmamoğlu, a member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), has long been seen as one of the most viable challengers to Erdoğan. His unexpected arrest has been perceived by many as a strategic move to eliminate him from the electoral race before his party could officially nominate him. The decision to nullify his university diploma has further fuelled concerns that his exclusion from the election was premeditated.
While the Turkish authorities cite legal grounds for the arrest, critics argue that the timing suggests a politically motivated crackdown. The move has been labelled a “civilian coup” by opposition figures, who claim that Erdoğan is tightening his grip on power by neutralising prominent rivals.
Legal Charges and Their Political Implications
The charges against İmamoğlu include corruption and alleged ties to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). These accusations have added to speculation that the government is employing judicial mechanisms to suppress opposition leaders. The irony, as observers point out, is that Erdoğan’s government itself has engaged in negotiations with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan in an attempt to broker a ceasefire in Kurdish-populated areas of Turkey and across its borders.
The legal actions against İmamoğlu echo Erdoğan’s own political past. In the 1990s, Erdoğan himself was imprisoned for reciting a poem deemed politically sensitive. His subsequent rise to power—from Istanbul mayor to prime minister and later president—has led some to suggest that history could repeat itself, with İmamoğlu’s arrest elevating his political stature rather than diminishing it.
A Wider Political Crackdown?
İmamoğlu is not the only opposition figure facing state pressure. Opposition-led municipalities in Turkey’s major cities, including Istanbul and Ankara, have faced increasing scrutiny from Erdoğan’s government. With the opposition controlling key urban centres, dismantling their influence has become a priority for the ruling administration.
However, targeting İmamoğlu presents a challenge. His popularity stems from his ability to appeal to a broad electorate, including moderate conservatives, urban liberals, and Kurdish voters. His removal from the presidential race does not guarantee that Erdoğan’s preferred opponent will be weak enough to secure an easy victory.
International Reactions and Strategic Considerations
Despite criticism from European leaders and Western diplomats, Erdoğan appears confident that the geopolitical landscape limits the likelihood of serious repercussions. Turkey’s strategic role in Europe’s security architecture—particularly following the United States’ reduced engagement on the continent—makes Erdoğan an indispensable partner for Western allies.
Recent events underscore Turkey’s importance. Erdoğan was invited to a summit of European leaders in London, hosted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Though he declined to attend, sending his foreign minister instead, the invitation itself highlights Turkey’s significance in regional diplomacy. With security concerns in the Middle East escalating—particularly the ongoing conflict in Gaza and tensions in the Red Sea—Western governments are reluctant to engage in a direct confrontation with Ankara.
Washington also appears unwilling to push back too hard against Erdoğan at a time when the United States is engaged in military operations against Houthi militants in Yemen and attempting to stabilise its alliances in the Middle East. Given Turkey’s complex relationships with Iran, Israel, and various armed factions in the region, the Trump administration is likely to prioritise maintaining workable ties with Erdoğan over supporting his domestic opposition.
Erdoğan’s Calculations and Potential Risks
By acting now, Erdoğan ensures that İmamoğlu is removed before he can officially enter the presidential race. However, this strategy carries risks. The domestic backlash to İmamoğlu’s arrest could galvanise opposition support, particularly among young voters and those disillusioned with Erdoğan’s long tenure.
Public dissatisfaction with economic conditions and governance issues remains high. The Turkish economy continues to struggle with inflation and currency instability, factors that have already eroded Erdoğan’s electoral base. Suppressing political opponents may temporarily consolidate his power, but if mishandled, it could also reinvigorate opposition movements.
