Zelenskyy: Russia Will Begin to Feel Full Impact of Sanctions in Mid-2026

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that the Russian economy is expected to begin experiencing the cumulative effects of existing international sanctions from June 2026. His remarks were made during a briefing with journalists on 27 May.

Zelenskyy expressed hope that the war would have ended by that point, but stressed that, regardless of developments on the ground, Russia would begin to feel the delayed consequences of the measures already imposed by Ukraine’s allies.

“June 2026 — we all hope the war will be over by then. Very much so. But we also understand that the economic effects of the sanctions will be felt by Russians from that time. Even from those already in place,” he said. “We believe that from around the summer of 2026, their economy will begin to feel it acutely. We understand the scale of the budget deficit they will face.”

While acknowledging the difficulty of accurate economic forecasting due to the largely informal nature of Russia’s economy, Zelenskyy stated that the Kremlin’s fiscal position would become increasingly constrained. “Maybe the deficit won’t be catastrophic for their economy because so much of it is in the shadows,” he said. “But we can see that they will not be able to grow next year. It will contract — and it will keep contracting. The economy will be fundamentally transformed; everything will be spent on the war effort.”

Zelenskyy identified the growing scale of Russia’s military-industrial complex as a significant concern. He noted that key elements of this expansion are being supported by components and materials sourced from abroad, despite sanctions.

According to Zelenskyy, approximately 30 major Russian defence enterprises currently maintain contracts with suppliers from China, Taiwan, the United States, and several European countries. “Roughly three dozen core enterprises in Russia’s defence industry systematically hold contracts with companies from those countries I mentioned,” he said. “The details, the names, how to respond — I understand that at the level of national leadership, in the US or Europe, no one supports this.”

He added that sanctions remain the most effective means to disrupt these channels and reduce Russia’s ability to sustain high levels of military production. “This can be addressed through sanctions,” Zelenskyy said, implying that further enforcement and secondary measures will be necessary to prevent circumvention.

His comments come amid a renewed Ukrainian campaign to tighten sanctions enforcement and to close loopholes allowing the continued flow of dual-use goods and high-tech components to Russian end-users. Although Western governments have introduced a wide range of restrictions since 2022, Ukrainian officials argue that inconsistent implementation and limited oversight have undermined their full potential.

Russia has continued to finance its war effort through a combination of redirected trade, increased economic ties with non-Western countries, and significant military spending. While high oil and gas revenues have helped the Kremlin to mitigate short-term shocks, longer-term vulnerabilities remain, particularly in sectors requiring advanced technologies and precision equipment.

Independent analysts have pointed to signs of strain within the Russian economy, including increased budget deficits, growing reliance on domestic debt, and reduced access to Western capital markets. However, the timing and severity of the eventual impact remain the subject of debate.

Zelenskyy’s projection of mid-2026 as a turning point reflects Kyiv’s broader strategy of maintaining international pressure on Moscow through economic means. It also suggests that Ukraine is preparing for a protracted phase of the conflict, in which the gradual erosion of Russia’s economic capacity becomes a key objective.

The Kremlin has not officially commented on Zelenskyy’s statements. Russian authorities have repeatedly downplayed the effect of sanctions, citing alternative trade arrangements and internal production capacity. Nonetheless, recent data suggest that Moscow faces mounting challenges in sustaining complex defence supply chains.

With the war showing no immediate signs of resolution, sanctions are likely to remain a central instrument in the West’s approach to the conflict. Whether they produce the anticipated economic shift by mid-2026 will depend not only on the restrictions themselves, but on the political will of governments to enforce them.

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