The Complexity of Trump’s Approach to the Middle East
Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) Vice President for Policy Blaise Misztal has raised concerns about President Donald Trump’s approach to Middle Eastern policy, suggesting that it may not fully account for the complex, interconnected nature of the region’s challenges.
In an interview with Maariv, Misztal noted that Trump often views geopolitical issues through the lens of deal-making and negotiations, addressing each issue in isolation rather than integrating them into a broader regional strategy.
“The problem is that [Trump] sees each issue separately. He doesn’t connect the dots to an overall regional strategy,” Misztal explained. “We need to understand that all these challenges are interconnected: Gaza, Lebanon, normalization, and whether Iran will succeed in restoring its regional power and proxy network.”
Comparisons to Reagan’s Foreign Policy
Some have drawn parallels between Trump’s foreign policy approach and that of former President Ronald Reagan, noting that Reagan’s doctrine was only fully articulated later in his presidency. Misztal acknowledged that some strategic elements can be discerned in Trump’s policies, citing the Abraham Accords as a possible foundation for a broader regional vision. However, he pointed out that Trump’s approach is often criticized for lacking a formalized doctrine.
During his first term, Trump’s administration developed extensive documentation on various Middle Eastern issues, including a detailed plan exceeding 100 pages for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, were executed largely behind the scenes, suggesting that Trump’s plans, while appearing disorganized, may actually be more effective when handled discreetly.
The Iranian Threat: A Misconception of Weakness
Misztal warned against the widespread belief that Iran has been weakened to the point of submission, calling this perspective a “dangerous mistake.” He highlighted several key developments that demonstrate Iran’s continued strength and ambitions:
- Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, with a rapidly closing window to prevent it.
- A newly constructed underground nuclear facility in Natanz is so fortified that even the most powerful U.S. bombs cannot penetrate it.
- Iran is acquiring advanced Russian Sukhoi-35 fighter jets, further enhancing its military capabilities.
- UN sanctions on Iran are set to expire, potentially allowing it to expand its influence more freely.
The deep relationship between Iran and Hamas is another critical issue. Misztal noted that Hamas’s decision to delay the release of hostages came just after a delegation from the group visited Tehran, illustrating how closely coordinated their actions are with Iranian interests.
The Gulf Power Struggle and U.S. Strategy
Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both key U.S. allies, remain locked in a struggle for regional influence. Misztal emphasized the importance of maintaining relationships with both nations, given their respective strategic assets:
- Saudi Arabia is a critical stabilizing force in the region and a counterweight to Iranian aggression.
- Qatar is home to a vital U.S. airbase that was instrumental in past military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- Economically, both nations play a crucial role in funding reconstruction efforts in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon.
Trump’s previous administration played a role in ending the Saudi-Emirati boycott of Qatar, signaling an understanding of the need for cooperation between these Gulf powers.
A Region in Flux: Competing Interests and Opportunities
According to Misztal, the Middle East is experiencing a significant period of transformation, with regional players vying for influence. The balance of power is shifting, and areas previously under Iranian control are now contested. The key regional factions include:
- Moderate Sunni monarchies, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, seeking stability and economic growth.
- Countries supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, like Turkey and Qatar, promoting a different ideological vision for the region.
- Global players such as Russia and China, who remain active in shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The interconnected nature of the region’s issues, from Gaza to Lebanon to Iran’s proxy networks, makes strategic coordination essential. Misztal reiterated that Iran’s influence extends far beyond its nuclear ambitions and must be addressed as a broader regional challenge.
Trump’s Vision for Gaza: Strategy or Negotiation Tactic?
Trump’s statements regarding Gaza have sparked significant debate. In a recent interview, he appeared to suggest that displaced Gazans may not be able to return, a stance that members of his administration later downplayed. Misztal pointed out that Trump’s lack of a clearly articulated plan creates uncertainty.
Population displacement during conflict is not uncommon, he noted, referencing examples such as:
- Four million Syrians in Turkey for over a decade.
- Two million Ukrainian refugees in Poland.
- A million Syrian refugees in Germany.
Trump’s broader economic approach appears to focus on using Gulf state investments to rebuild Gaza. Misztal described this as part of Trump’s “art of the deal” philosophy, leveraging private sector investments to push Gulf nations to contribute more financially.
The Challenge of Rehabilitating Gaza
One of the most significant obstacles to stabilizing Gaza is addressing the ideological influence of Hamas. Misztal highlighted the fact that half of Gaza’s population is under 18, meaning they have been entirely educated under Hamas’s system, raising concerns about long-term radicalization.
“If we are serious about deradicalization, we need to think carefully about who will be responsible for the schools and mosques in a rehabilitated Gaza,” he warned. He expressed skepticism about allowing Qatar or Turkey to oversee these institutions, given their ideological leanings.
A New Vision for Middle East Security
Misztal cautioned against assuming that the Middle East’s current dynamics will remain unchanged. The events of October 7, he argued, serve as a stark reminder that the situation can shift rapidly.
To capitalize on Iran’s perceived current weakness, he outlined several priorities:
- Strengthening regional military cooperation through the Abraham Accords.
- Protecting strategic waterways such as the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.
- Building integrated air defense against Iranian missiles and drones.
- Deploying security forces along the Jordanian border to prevent instability from spilling over from Syria.
The Need for a Comprehensive Strategy
While normalization with Saudi Arabia is a crucial component of Trump’s regional policy, Misztal emphasized that it must be part of a broader strategy. Without a clear vision, the U.S. risks missing a historic opportunity to reshape the Middle East in a way that ensures long-term security and stability.
Trump’s preference for deal-making and economic incentives may offer short-term solutions, but Misztal warned that a failure to integrate these efforts into a cohesive long-term strategy could leave the region vulnerable to further instability. The challenge ahead lies in ensuring that U.S. policies address both immediate crises and the deeper geopolitical currents shaping the future of the Middle East.
Main Image: U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv
