On a windswept tarmac in Prestwick, Donald Trump touched down in Scotland on Friday evening, heralding the start of a four-day tour that promises as much diplomacy as it does spectacle.
Yet amid golf course unveilings and cordial visits with British leaders, a potentially seismic development is in the offing: a long-awaited EU-US trade deal.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will meet Mr Trump on Sunday in what sources say will be a make-or-break negotiation. Her presence, at Trump’s personal invitation, signals Brussels’ readiness to finalise an agreement that until recently had seemed mired in mutual distrust and tariffs.
“We’ve got a 50-50 shot,” Mr Trump told reporters upon disembarking from Air Force One. “Could be less. Could be more. We’ve got maybe 20 things to fix. But if it happens, it’ll be the biggest deal of them all.”
As ever, the former president spoke with his characteristic bravado. But behind the bombast lies a serious intent to reshape transatlantic trade – and to further cement his statesman credentials ahead of a likely 2024 re-election bid.
The EU, for its part, appears cautiously optimistic. Ireland’s Taoiseach Micheál Martin said he hoped a deal could be signed “before the weekend is over”, underscoring the urgency now gripping Brussels as it seeks to reduce economic friction with Washington.
Key elements of the deal are already becoming clear. A provisional agreement on 15% baseline tariffs would hit some European carmakers harder than others, particularly Volkswagen, which revealed on Friday that Trump’s import duties have already cost it £1 billion in the first half of the year. By contrast, British exporters – thanks to a separate deal secured in May – will enjoy a 10% tariff ceiling for up to 100,000 vehicles annually.
The EU now finds itself playing catch-up, nudged into action by Trump’s bold bilateralism. His deal with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which slashed UK car tariffs from 27.5% to 10% in exchange for expanded US access to British beef and ethanol markets, was seen as a tactical win for both sides. But it has also triggered alarm among UK farmers and biofuel producers.
Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union, warned of serious consequences for Britain’s agricultural base. “The US is pushing hard for dairy access,” he said. “That’s a red line for us. They use hormone treatments we banned decades ago. We cannot give any more.”
Still, the diplomatic optics of a globe-trotting Trump clinching back-to-back trade victories are unmistakable. From Tokyo to London and now potentially Brussels, the former president is seeking to recast himself as a dealmaker par excellence – one who succeeds where others equivocated.
Indeed, Trump wasted no time deploying his familiar mixture of flattery and pressure. He hailed von der Leyen as a “highly respected woman” but also hinted that the EU would need to offer more to match what Japan conceded. “They had a worse shot than Brussels, but they kept coming back,” he said. “We made a deal. The EU can do the same.”
His comments were laced with personal warmth for Starmer and Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, whom he called “a good man”. “We’re going to have a good time, I think,” he mused. “My mother was born in Scotland. I’ve got a lot of love for Scotland.”
There was, however, little love lost for France. Though Trump described Emmanuel Macron as “a team player”, he dismissed France’s plan to recognise Palestinian statehood as inconsequential. “It won’t carry any weight,” he said bluntly.
As ever, Trump also found time to rail against two of his longstanding bugbears: immigration and wind farms. “Immigration is killing Europe,” he claimed, repeating his view that the continent faces an “invasion”. And as for wind turbines? “They’re ruining your beautiful fields and killing your birds.”
Yet the rhetoric shouldn’t obscure the deeper significance of what’s unfolding. This is not merely another Trump visit full of handshakes and headlines. The prospect of an EU-US trade deal – however nascent – marks a dramatic turn in a relationship strained by years of tariff wars, digital taxes, and mutual suspicion.
Von der Leyen herself struck a constructive tone, saying she and Trump had a “good call” before his arrival. “We agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations and how we can keep them strong,” she said.
Insiders suggest she would not have agreed to fly to Scotland unless the outlines of a deal were already in place. Her meeting with Trump is expected to be short, focused, and, if all goes well, conclusive. Sources say the president will not sit down with her unless the groundwork for signing is complete.
And if a deal is struck? It would be a moment of vindication for Trump’s unorthodox style – combative, transactional, but, in this case, effective. His self-imposed deadline of next Friday for settling disputes with dozens of countries adds urgency. “We’re working very diligently with Europe,” he said. “Very diligently.”
Canada, he added with a smirk, was not a priority: “We haven’t had a lot of luck with them.”
As the weekend approaches, the eyes of Europe will turn to the Scottish highlands – not for their natural beauty, but for the sight of a European Commission president and a US president hammering out the final details of a deal that could reset the transatlantic economic balance.
For von der Leyen, it’s a chance to prove Brussels can act decisively. For Trump, it’s the kind of stage he relishes. For the rest of us, it’s a reminder that in the world of diplomacy, deals often begin on the fairway – and end behind closed doors.
