Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has signalled the possibility of halting electricity exports to Ukraine if Kyiv ceases the transit of Russian natural gas through its territory. The comments come as the region prepares for the expiration of a key transit agreement on 1 January 2025, raising tensions between Slovakia and Ukraine.
Fico made the statement in a video posted on social media, emphasising that Slovakia is prepared to take reciprocal measures should Ukraine discontinue the gas transit. He added that alternatives would be explored if necessary, underlining the critical need for the Slovak government to assess the situation following the potential disruption.
Tensions Rise Over Gas Transit
Ukraine has previously declared its intention not to extend the existing transit agreement with Russia, which expires at the start of next year. This move has ignited disputes between Fico and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with the disagreement escalating during last week’s EU summit in Brussels. Fico also raised the issue during discussions in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend.
Fico criticised Ukraine’s decision, describing it as an “extremely expensive gesture” that could have severe economic repercussions for the European Union, including Slovakia. He estimated that higher energy costs in 2025 and 2026 could cost the EU €120 billion, significantly affecting the bloc’s competitiveness. For Slovakia, Fico projected a loss of around €500 million in transit fees, while Ukraine could lose nearly €1 billion. In comparison, Russia would face a smaller loss of approximately €2.5 billion.
Implications for Slovakia
Slovakia has long been a transit hub for Russian gas, but Fico warned that ending Ukrainian transit routes would push the country to the end of alternative supply chains. This shift would likely increase gas prices, placing further strain on the Slovak economy.
“Who cares about Slovakia, right, Mr Zelenskyy?” Fico remarked, in a pointed criticism of Ukraine’s stance. “But when you need something to avoid freezing in the winter, you shout for help,” he added.
The Slovak leader also questioned who stands to benefit from the EU’s decreasing reliance on Russian gas, suggesting that the primary beneficiary is the United States. He claimed that Russia remains willing to supply gas to the EU even after the current transit deal ends.
Electricity Exports in Focus
Slovakia has significantly increased its electricity exports to Ukraine, with 2.4 million megawatt-hours exported between January and November this year, a 152% rise compared to the previous year, according to Reuters. This trade has become increasingly vital for Ukraine as it navigates energy shortages caused by the ongoing war with Russia.
Fico’s threat to halt these supplies marks a sharp escalation in bilateral tensions. Slovakia’s energy exports are crucial for Ukraine, particularly during the winter months when demand peaks.
Shifting Dynamics in European Energy
The broader context of the dispute reflects a shift in European energy dependence. Most Western European countries have significantly reduced or eliminated their reliance on Russian gas, with notable exceptions being Slovakia, Hungary, and, to a lesser extent, Italy and Austria. The Austrian energy company OMV recently terminated its agreement with Gazprom following arbitration over supply shortfalls.
Fico’s government, however, has maintained closer ties with Russia compared to many of its European counterparts. His recent talks with President Putin and other Russian officials highlights Slovakia’s complex position in the evolving energy landscape.
Economic and Geopolitical Ramifications
The dispute has far-reaching implications, not only for Slovakia and Ukraine but also for the EU as a whole. Rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions could exacerbate economic challenges across the bloc, while the geopolitical consequences of the ongoing reliance on Russian energy continue to spark debate.
Fico’s remarks and proposed measures have drawn criticism from analysts, who warn that his actions could deepen Slovakia’s isolation within the EU and strain its relations with neighbouring countries. As the January deadline approaches, the region braces for potential turbulence in its energy markets and political relationships.
