Russia’s economy has been hit hard by a steep decline in export revenues, according to data from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). The figures highlight the economic challenges posed by intensified international sanctions on the country’s banking sector.
In December 2024, Russian exporters generated $31.3 billion in revenue from goods sold abroad, a 19% decrease compared to the same period the previous year. With $25.7 billion allocated to cover imports, the trade surplus—the net gain from external trade—shrank to $5.6 billion. This marks the lowest level since 2020. When factoring in both goods and services, the trade surplus narrowed further to $2 billion, a low not seen since the COVID19 pandemic’s peak.
Impact of Sanctions on Export Revenue
The sharp downturn in trade figures coincided with the implementation of sanctions targeting Russia’s banking sector in late November. Analysts from Raiffeisenbank suggest these measures disrupted payment systems and hindered export flows, compounding the country’s economic woes.
Gazprombank, the last major state-owned bank with access to dollar transactions and the SWIFT payment system, was among those sanctioned by the United States.
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Alongside Gazprombank, an additional 50 financial institutions linked to foreign trade were added to sanctions lists. According to Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, the restrictions now cover 95% of Russia’s banking sector.
The sanctions have also restricted access to foreign currency. While official figures show a decline in export revenues, they also reveal an increase of $4.9 billion in overseas assets held by Russian companies in December. This indicates that a significant portion of foreign currency earnings is not being repatriated to Russia. Analyst Ilya Fedorov from BCS noted that these “trapped” earnings amount to an estimated $20 billion over the past year, further straining the domestic currency market.
Oil and Gas Exports Under Pressure
The economic outlook remains bleak, particularly for Russia’s vital oil and gas sector, which has been a cornerstone of its export revenues. A new wave of sanctions targeting the energy industry was introduced in late 2024. Before leaving office, U.S. President Joe Biden placed key Russian energy companies, including Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, on the U.S. Treasury’s blacklist. Additionally, 183 tankers associated with Russia’s shadow fleet were sanctioned, significantly impacting oil exports to India, Russia’s second-largest oil buyer after China.
Economists predict the sanctions will deprive Russia of nearly $30 billion in oil revenue annually. Raiffeisenbank estimates that overall exports could shrink by 10%, equivalent to more than $40 billion. Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist at Alfa Bank, warned that export revenues are likely to remain at depressed levels for the foreseeable future.
Seasonal Trends Reversed
December typically sees a seasonal rise in export revenues, but this trend reversed in 2024. Compared to November, exports fell by 10% after seasonal adjustments. When measured against the monthly average of $37 billion recorded during the third quarter, December’s exports were down by 17%, underscoring the severity of the decline.
The dwindling trade surplus of $5–6 billion per month is insufficient to cover Russia’s external debt obligations, fund citizens’ international travel, and support capital outflows, according to analysts at MMI. This shortfall in foreign currency has contributed to the depreciation of the rouble, a trend expected to persist under the weight of sanctions.
A Worsening Outlook
As sanctions continue to restrict Russia’s ability to sell raw materials abroad, the country faces mounting economic challenges. Analysts warn that the combination of declining export revenues and constrained access to foreign currency could further destabilise the rouble and weaken the broader economy.
The data highlights the profound impact of international sanctions on Russia’s economic resilience and its capacity to maintain trade-driven growth. As these measures continue to disrupt key sectors, the economic outlook for 2025 appears increasingly dire.
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