OPEC and its allies are poised to raise oil production again from October, although the monthly increment is expected to be smaller than recent additions as demand softens with the end of the summer driving season.
Delegates said an online meeting scheduled for Sunday at 12:30 GMT is likely to approve another increase, continuing the group’s reversal of earlier curbs begun in April.
Since April, OPEC+ has lifted quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd)—roughly 2.4% of global demand—after years of supply restraint. The move has been framed as a push to protect market share and has coincided with pressure from Washington to ease pump prices. The producer alliance comprises OPEC members, Russia and several other partners, and accounts for about half of world supply.
Talks ahead of Sunday’s session have centred on unwinding part of a second “layer” of cuts earlier than planned, via modest monthly steps. Two OPEC+ sources indicated a floor of roughly 135,000 bpd for October, while another said the rise could fall in a 200,000–350,000 bpd range. At its August meeting, the group cleared a 547,000 bpd increase for September. Any new adjustment would mark a slower pace than recent months.
Despite successive hikes, prices have proven resilient. Brent crude settled at $65.50 a barrel on Friday, down 2.2% on the day after a weak U.S. employment report, but still well above the 2025 low near $58 seen in April. Traders remain focused on the balance between additional OPEC+ barrels and the drag from macroeconomic data.
Capacity constraints have limited the impact of nominal quota increases. Many members are already pumping close to their maximums, meaning actual additions have fallen short of headline pledges. Analysts note that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates retain the most room to raise output materially, leaving them to shoulder the bulk of any incremental supply.
The group is still operating with two overlapping cut frameworks: a 1.65 million bpd reduction applicable to eight members and a broader 2 million bpd cut shared across the full coalition, both previously guided to run until end-2026. Discussions about October’s step are part of a wider debate about gradually unwinding the second layer more than a year ahead of schedule while preserving flexibility to pause if demand weakens. Sunday’s meeting will review market signals and conformity.
Compliance remains under scrutiny. OPEC has reiterated that countries which overproduced will compensate through deeper curbs in subsequent months, with the cohort convening monthly to track progress. In early August, the organisation said the eight participating states would continue to review conformity and accelerate compensation for any excess output accrued since January 2024.
Iraq, historically one of the largest overproducers in the group, has signalled it would like its export allowance reconsidered to reflect capacity and policy priorities. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani made the appeal ahead of the weekend meeting, as Baghdad’s exports averaged 3.38 million bpd in August with a projection of 3.4–3.45 million bpd for September. OPEC includes flows from the Kurdistan region within Iraq’s quota.
Broader market context is mixed. U.S. crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week, reflecting seasonal refinery maintenance, while investors weigh the potential for monetary easing against signs of slower activity. Brent’s pullback into the mid-$60s and the prospect of a measured OPEC+ increase suggest a near-term market finely balanced between incremental supply and demand risks. The extent to which Saudi Arabia and the UAE deploy spare capacity, and whether lagging members meet compensation targets, will shape the supply outlook into the fourth quarter.
Should OPEC+ approve a smaller October increment, it would maintain the alliance’s gradualist approach: securing market share and signalling responsiveness to prices, without overwhelming demand at summer’s end. Final volumes will depend on the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee’s assessment of market conditions and the group’s adherence to compensation plans in the months ahead.
OPEC+ Reaches Preliminary Agreement on Major September Output Hike
