OPEC+ Reaches Preliminary Agreement on Major September Output Hike

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, has agreed in principle to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) from September, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The decision marks a continued shift away from years of production restraint.

The proposed hike would complete the reversal of a 2.2 million bpd production cut implemented in earlier years. OPEC+ began incrementally raising output in April, initially by 138,000 bpd, followed by successive increases of 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July. August saw a further jump to 548,000 bpd, and if agreed, the September increase will match that figure.

The planned move comes amid mounting geopolitical tensions and heightened Western pressure on major oil consumers to reduce reliance on Russian crude. In particular, the United States has increased its diplomatic efforts to persuade India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil as part of a broader attempt to limit Moscow’s revenue and apply pressure on the Kremlin to enter negotiations over its war in Ukraine.

OPEC+, which comprises 23 oil-producing nations including 10 non-OPEC states such as Russia and Kazakhstan, is responsible for roughly half of global crude supply. The group had implemented coordinated production cuts in recent years in an effort to stabilise oil prices, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty and demand shocks. However, that strategy has undergone a significant recalibration in 2025.

Earlier in the year, the group began scaling up production in response to tightening global supply and increased market demand. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, closed near $70 per barrel on Friday—up from approximately $58 in April. The group has pointed to what it characterises as robust market fundamentals to justify its accelerated pace of production increases.

Should the 548,000-bpd increase proceed as expected, the United Arab Emirates would also be permitted to raise its output quota by 300,000 bpd, in line with a separate internal agreement reached among OPEC+ members.

Despite the latest proposed increase, several layers of voluntary output restraint remain in place. These include a separate 1.65 million bpd reduction shared among eight members and a broader 2 million bpd group-wide cut. Both tranches are currently scheduled to remain in effect until the end of 2026.

The group’s decision-making process has been closely watched by markets and policymakers alike, particularly as oil prices influence inflation trends and economic stability in both producing and consuming nations. While OPEC+ maintains that its current strategy is based on technical assessments of market needs, its decisions remain subject to broader geopolitical considerations.

In recent months, the Trump administration has stepped up engagement with oil-producing nations, calling for increased output to alleviate price pressures on consumers and reduce global dependence on Russian supplies. Although the United States is not a member of OPEC+, its influence remains significant, particularly given its role as the world’s largest oil producer.

The latest production increase would also signal a continued alignment of interests among key OPEC+ members despite diverging political priorities. While some member states—such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE—have sought to expand market share and stabilise revenue flows, others, including Russia, face mounting economic sanctions and shifting trade patterns.

The group’s cohesion has been periodically tested by these differing objectives, but it has so far managed to maintain a united front in setting output policy.

The outcome of Sunday’s meeting is expected to be formally announced later today. Markets will be closely monitoring the final communique for any indications of future policy direction or potential revisions to the group’s existing voluntary cuts.

With oil prices continuing to trend upwards and diplomatic tensions remaining high, the balance between supply discipline and market responsiveness is likely to remain a central challenge for OPEC+ in the months ahead.

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