SANTIAGO — In what many analysts are calling the most polarised presidential contest in Chile’s recent history, the upcoming run-off on 14th December pits far-right firebrand José Antonio Kast against the Communist-wing candidate Jeannette Jara.
The stakes are high — and the choice stark: a battle between two diametrically opposed visions of society, underpinned by deep anxieties about crime, immigration, and national identity.
Kast, a hard-right lawyer and vocal admirer of Donald Trump, has surged into the run-off on a platform of toughened security, mass deportations, and dramatic crackdowns on undocumented immigrants. He has warned that those without legal status “should get out before I make you leave with only the clothes on your back,” a message that has resonated among many, but struck fear in immigrant communities — particularly Venezuelans fleeing socialism.
On the other side stands Jeannette Jara, a former labour minister in the outgoing left-wing government of Gabriel Boric, and a member of the Communist Party. She leads with a more traditional leftist economic agenda — boosting social services, lowering utility costs, and expanding housing — but anchors much of her platform in a hard-line law-and-order stance, promising more prisons and stronger border controls.
Immigration and Crime: The Twin Fault Lines
At the heart of this showdown lie two deeply seismic issues: immigration and security. Crime, particularly linked to organised gangs, has become a defining concern for Chileans. Politicians and voters alike cite a rise in transnational gang activity, including from the notorious Venezuelan “Tren de Aragua,” as justification for a security-first agenda.
Kast has tapped into popular fears, leveraging them into a campaign that echoes Trumpian rhetoric. He has proposed deporting hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants, stripping them of social benefits, and even holding them in detention centres at their own cost. His supporters, many of whom feel alienated by rising crime and what they see as unchecked immigration, praise him for offering decisive leadership in a time of uncertainty.
But to many immigrants themselves — especially the roughly 1.5 million foreigners residing in Chile, among them some 900,000 eligible to vote — Kast’s hardline proposals represent a direct threat. Some Venezuelan-Chileans, who fled authoritarianism only to feel unwelcome in their new home, are torn between loyalty to their adopted country and fear for their safety and dignity.
A Haunted Past, a Fractured Present
Chile’s collective memory carries a heavy weight. The legacy of Augusto Pinochet’s brutal military dictatorship looms large, a reminder that extremes come with a price. For many, Kast’s nostalgia for some aspects of the past — his admiration for “order” and strength — raises alarm bells.
On the left, Jara’s Communist affiliation still triggers deep-seated anxieties. “In Chile’s collective imagination, communism means destruction and hostility to private property,” said one political scientist. Her critics paint her as a radical in sheep’s clothing, while her backers argue she offers a responsible, modern left-wing alternative anchored in democratic institutions.
What makes this election particularly fraught is the contortion of ideologies: both candidates, though ideologically opposed, have leaned hard into tough-on-crime messaging. As one voter put it, “It’s not just a choice between left and right — it’s a referendum on fear, order and who has the right to belong here.”
A Shift to the Right: Latin America’s New Political Tide
Chile’s election is not unfolding in isolation. Experts note that a broader rightward wave is sweeping across Latin America, with countries such as El Salvador, Ecuador, and Argentina also tilting toward hardline leaders. In that context, Kast’s campaign looks less like an anomaly, and more like part of a regional realignment — one where security, sovereignty and populism are becoming the dominant themes.
Kast himself has framed his run-off bid as a national “referendum between two models”: a choice between stagnation and progress, disorder and authority.
Jara’s Uphill Battle: Pragmatism vs Passion
Despite leading in the first round, Jara faces an uphill battle to win in December. Her relative moderation on the economy — she has distanced herself from calls to nationalise lithium and copper — may help broaden her appeal, but her Communist affiliation remains a potent liability. Her campaign has thus struck a careful tone: acknowledging crime concerns, pledging greater security, but promising social reforms and inclusive governance. “Don’t let fear freeze your heart,” she told supporters, urging a vote not driven by panic but by democratic conviction.
Whether that message resonates beyond her base remains to be seen. Analysts warn that with Kast consolidating right-wing forces — many of whom came from other defeated right-wing contenders — Jara may struggle to galvanise enough support.
The Immigrant Dilemma: Torn Between Past and Present
Perhaps the most poignant tension lies within Chile’s immigrant population. Many Venezuelans, for instance, remain deeply appreciative of their adopted homeland; yet, others tremble at the thought of deportations, loss of benefits, or a crackdown on the undocumented. Some have expressed regret that their newfound stability might be imperilled by a government they helped to empower.
For immigrants, the election feels existential: a question of not just whom they live under, but whether they have a future in a country that once welcomed them as an escape from tyranny.
A Country Poised on a Knife-Edge
Chile now finds itself at a crossroads. On 14th December, voters will not just decide between two individuals, but between two fundamentally different visions: one of authoritarian discipline, the other of egalitarian justice. The rhetoric is stark, and the emotional stakes are high.
Kast promises swift action, tough borders and unflinching law enforcement. Jara offers social uplift, but not at the expense of order — or so she insists.
In a nation whose democratic fabric was once torn by dictatorship, the risk is not just political but moral. Can Chile navigate this storm without repeating the catastrophes of its past? Or will fear triumph over hope?
Main Image: By Equipo Kast – https://www.flickr.com/photos/203750669@N08/54857434448/, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=176772887
