For the first time in weeks, there is a glimmer – however faint – of movement in the bloody stalemate of Gaza.
Hamas has reportedly accepted a ceasefire and hostage release proposal mediated by Egypt and Qatar, one built on the framework drawn up earlier this summer by US envoy Steve Witkoff. On paper, it sounds like a step forward: roughly half of the 50 remaining Israeli hostages, 20 of whom are thought to be alive, would be freed in two stages over the course of a 60-day truce. In practice, it leaves more questions than answers.
The central sticking point has always been the same: Israel wants all hostages released at once, while Hamas prefers to string out negotiations in stages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made that position abundantly clear last week, insisting that only a total handover would be acceptable. Yet, in a telling video statement following Hamas’s supposed acceptance, he avoided addressing the deal directly. Instead, he pointedly observed that Hamas was “under immense pressure” – a comment that seemed designed to weaken the political value of its offer rather than to explore its potential.
The truth is that Israel now finds itself at a crossroads. The army’s chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, has described the war as reaching a “turning point,” and the latest manoeuvres suggest that Jerusalem is less interested in halting operations than in intensifying them. Israeli tanks have pushed further into Gaza City, surrounding schools and even a UN-run clinic that were sheltering displaced civilians. For those on the ground, the consequences are catastrophic; for the Israeli government, they are part of a deliberate attempt to make Hamas feel the full weight of attrition.
The Military Logic
Israel’s military establishment is acutely aware that Hamas thrives on uncertainty and delay. By offering a partial hostage release, the group ensures that it retains bargaining chips for the next round of talks. Each truce buys time for Hamas to regroup, rearm and reorganise its political position within Gaza’s fragmented landscape. That explains why Netanyahu, facing pressure from hawks in his cabinet, is wary of any deal that does not definitively settle the hostage issue.
From a strategic standpoint, Israel believes momentum is on its side. Its forces have deepened their penetration of Gaza City and now appear poised to implement a full occupation plan, expected to be formally approved by the cabinet later this week. Netanyahu has already pledged to “widen the offensive and conquer all of Gaza” – a maximalist objective that would involve controlling not just the devastated north but also the southern regions where most of the enclave’s 2.1 million residents have fled.
In other words, Jerusalem sees little reason to grant Hamas breathing space, especially if the payoff is only partial. To do so risks prolonging the conflict indefinitely, with civilians once again caught in the middle of a cynical bargaining process.
Hamas Under Pressure
That Hamas accepted the Egyptian-Qatari proposal at all is itself revealing. The group is under strain, militarily battered and politically cornered. Casualty figures in Gaza are mounting, while its grip on the population is weakening as shortages, displacement and humanitarian collapse intensify. A senior Hamas negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, has been stationed in Cairo for days, trying to salvage a deal that might relieve the pressure without forcing the group into outright capitulation.
Netanyahu’s Dilemma
For Netanyahu, the calculus is brutal. On one hand, families of the hostages continue to demand their return, creating moral and political pressure to engage with any deal, however imperfect. On the other, his governing coalition is dominated by hardliners who insist that total military victory, not compromise, is the only acceptable outcome.
His ambiguity in public statements reflects this tension. By emphasising Hamas’s weakness while avoiding any clear endorsement of the truce, Netanyahu buys himself time. But the longer he hesitates, the more the humanitarian toll in Gaza risks isolating Israel internationally, not least among its Western allies.
A Ceasefire Without Trust
Even if the proposal were to move forward, the deeper question is whether either side genuinely believes in a permanent settlement. For Hamas, survival is victory; for Israel, security means total dismantling of Hamas’s capabilities. These positions are not reconcilable within a 60-day truce, however well-intentioned the mediators may be.
Indeed, this deal – if it materialises – risks becoming another tactical pause in a grinding war of attrition. Hostages may be released, civilians may briefly breathe easier, but the underlying dynamics of mistrust, pressure and escalation remain unchanged.
The Egyptian and Qatari envoys, backed by Washington, are betting that small steps can build momentum towards something bigger. But as tanks roll deeper into Gaza City and Netanyahu talks of conquering “all of Gaza,” the more likely outcome is that this latest offer joins the long list of fleeting, half-measures that have punctuated this war since it began nearly two years ago.
For now, then, the Gaza ceasefire talks appear less a breakthrough than another symptom of a conflict in which humanitarian imperatives, political survival, and military logic collide with devastating consequences.
Main Image: — UNRWA: United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East
