The European Union has been warned to brace for a potential Russian military challenge within the next three to five years. This stark message was delivered by Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, during the European Defence Agency’s (EDA) annual conference in Brussels on 22 January.
Urgent Need for Preparedness
Drawing on intelligence assessments, Kallas cautioned that Russia may seek to test the EU’s readiness for self-defence by 2028.
“Many of our national intelligence services indicate that Russia could challenge our readiness to defend ourselves in this timeframe,” she said.
With Russia currently spending five times more on defence than the EU, Kallas argued that significant investment is essential to address this imbalance.
“Weakness provokes aggression,” she remarked, stressing the importance of a proactive and unified response among member states to deter potential threats.
Economic Strength vs Defence Spending
While Russia allocates approximately 9% of its GDP to defence, the EU collectively spent an average of 1.9% in 2024. Kallas underscored that the EU’s combined economies are 17 times larger than Russia’s, but this economic advantage must be matched by robust defence investments to prevent any perception of vulnerability.
Over the next decade, the EU is estimated to need €500 billion to maintain competitiveness in defence capabilities. Yet, only €13 billion is currently earmarked for defence and security in the EU’s long-term budget from 2021 to 2027—just 1.2% of the total. Kallas urged an increase in defence spending beyond the traditional 1% of the EU’s GDP allocated to policy priorities.
Time Bought by Ukraine
Kallas emphasised that Ukraine’s resistance against Russian aggression has bought Europe critical time to strengthen its defences. “Every day Ukraine fights on is a day the EU and NATO can grow stronger,” said Andrius Kubilius, European Commissioner for Defence and Space. He described the war as a pivotal moment for Europe to bolster its military preparedness and address longstanding shortfalls.
Kubilius highlighted the need for a unified approach, including interoperable weapons systems, aggregated demand for defence production, and collaborative projects such as the EU’s air and cyber defence shields. “Russia’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine,” he warned, calling for swift and coordinated action.
A Call for Unity and Strategy
Lithuania has responded to these warnings by announcing plans to increase defence spending to 5–6% of GDP by 2026. However, larger EU economies such as Italy and Spain remain below NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending target, reflecting significant disparities in member states’ contributions to collective security.
Kallas dismissed the idea of creating a single European army, instead advocating for enhanced cooperation among the 27 national armies.
“We do not need a European army. We need 27 European armies that are capable and can effectively work together,”
she said, stressing the importance of interoperability to deter adversaries.
Broader Implications
The EU’s next long-term budget, set to be renegotiated in 2025, is likely to prioritise defence spending. Kallas also revealed plans for a 16th sanctions package against Russia and discussed potential mechanisms to utilise frozen Russian assets. These measures aim to weaken Moscow’s ability to fund its military activities and prevent future aggression.
French President Emmanuel Macron has echoed Kallas’s call for increased defence investment, warning that Europe must reduce its reliance on the United States for security. “What will we do if our American ally withdraws its warships from the Mediterranean?” Macron asked, urging Europe to take greater responsibility for its security.
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