Two years on from the 7 October 2023 Hamas assault on Israel, negotiations in Egypt over a ceasefire-and-hostage package have moved into a decisive stage, with United States envoys joining Egyptian, Qatari and Israeli counterparts in an effort to close a deal.
Hamas says lists of hostages and Palestinian prisoners have been exchanged, a step that has previously signalled progress in similar talks.
The discussions are taking place under a US-brokered framework widely referred to as the “Trump plan”, a 20-point proposal that links a ceasefire in Gaza to staged hostage releases, Israeli withdrawals and arrangements for interim governance. Public signals from the negotiating parties suggest the plan’s broad contours are accepted, but key conditions remain contested.
Hamas’s stated conditions
According to positions conveyed around the talks, Hamas has set out a sequence of requirements before it will proceed to operational discussions on releasing hostages. These include: a cessation of hostilities; a halt to Israeli overflights—including drones, helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft—over Gaza; and the pullback of heavy armour from densely populated areas to allow internal communications with units holding captives.
Hamas is also pressing for daily entry of large-scale humanitarian assistance and the removal of movement restrictions between northern and southern Gaza. The aid ask cited in the talks—400 lorryloads a day—would represent a substantial increase on many recent delivery rates reported by humanitarian agencies.
There is also a dispute over timelines. While the US plan has been presented with tight deadlines for the handover of captives after a deal is reached—described by US officials and media as measured in days—Hamas has pushed for a longer stand-down before transfers begin. In addition, Hamas is seeking written guarantees from Washington that Israel will not resume military operations after an initial truce and will not target the group’s leadership. Those demands are among the most sensitive points for Israel and its allies.
Prisoner file at the centre of the deal
Any exchange would hinge on the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Hamas has signalled that, beyond large numbers of detainees, it wants several high-profile inmates included. Figures frequently named in this context include:
Marwan Barghouti, a senior Fatah figure serving multiple life sentences for orchestrating attacks during the Second Intifada.
Abdallah Barghouti, a Hamas bomb-maker serving 67 life terms for attacks in the early 2000s.
Ibrahim Hamed, described by Israeli sources as among the most dangerous prisoners, serving 54 life terms.
Ahmad Sa’adat, secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, convicted over the 2001 killing of Israeli tourism minister Rehavam Ze’evi.
Hassan Salameh, serving multiple life sentences for bus bombings in Jerusalem in the 1990s. (His name has also appeared in recent reporting on Hamas’s priorities.)
Israeli officials have previously resisted releasing several of these prisoners, including during the 2011 Gilad Shalit deal, and the question of who selects names on each side is again a sticking point, according to Israeli media.
Governance proposals and the Blair question
Beyond the immediate ceasefire and exchange, the US plan sketches arrangements for Gaza’s interim governance. Reporting over the past fortnight indicates a proposal for a “Board of Peace” supervising a technocratic Palestinian administration, with former UK prime minister Tony Blair floated for a prominent role. This notion has attracted criticism from a range of analysts and actors; Hamas has publicly rejected the idea of Blair in a governing capacity, while opinion pages and analysts have also questioned the approach.
Numbers and verification
The total number of captives still held in Gaza remains disputed in public reporting. Recent US and Israeli briefings and media accounts have referenced a figure of roughly fifty remaining hostages, with a subset believed alive; Hamas and Israel have now exchanged updated lists in Cairo, but neither side has released authoritative totals. Officials caution that any agreement may be phased and contingent on verification procedures on the ground.
Outlook
Two years and a day after the 7 October attacks, the parties appear closer to a package than at many points in the conflict, but the gap on core issues—security guarantees, sequencing, and the status of senior Palestinian prisoners—remains wide. Negotiators say process points, such as who vets prisoner lists and how quickly movements occur once a truce takes hold, could prove decisive.
The presence of US envoys in Cairo is seen by several diplomats as a positive sign; equally, the history of near-misses in previous rounds argues for caution. For now, the talks continue, with mediators signalling guarded optimism while underlining the scope for sudden reversals.
