Brent crude could fall to the “$30s per barrel” by 2027 in an oversupply scenario, according to a new projection from JP Morgan.
The bank’s research suggests that a wave of new supply, particularly from non-OPEC+ producers, could outpace demand growth over the next two years and place sustained downward pressure on prices. Brent is currently trading a little above $62 per barrel, roughly 14% lower than at the start of the year.
OIL PRICES COULD PLUNGE TO $30S BY 2027, JPMORGAN FORECASTS
JPMorgan predicts Brent crude could fall to the $30s by 2027, driven by an oversupply as non-OPEC production outpaces global demand. Currently priced at $62.40, Brent has dropped 14% in 2025 due to weak Chinese demand… pic.twitter.com/XtfeOMfCBn
— Naeem Aslam (@NaeemAslam23) November 24, 2025
The JP Morgan note distinguishes between its base case and a more bearish downside. In its central forecast, the bank expects Brent to average about $58 per barrel in 2026 and $57 in 2027, with WTI at $54 and $53 respectively. However, it argues that if the current supply wave proves more persistent, and if demand remains subdued, prices could briefly fall into the $30s by the end of the 2027 financial year. Almost half of the projected supply growth is expected to come from non-OPEC+ producers, supported by offshore developments and resilient shale output.
Recent trading has reflected these concerns. On Tuesday Brent futures were around $62 per barrel and US benchmark WTI about $58, with both contracts under pressure from expectations of a sizeable surplus in 2026. Analysts at several banks, as well as the International Energy Agency, now expect global supply to exceed demand by at least 2 million barrels per day next year, with some estimates for the surplus rising above 4 million barrels per day in certain scenarios. Reuters+1
Goldman Sachs has set out a similar near-term view, forecasting that WTI will average $53 per barrel in 2026 and Brent about $56. The bank’s commodities team estimates an average surplus of 2 million barrels per day next year as delayed long-cycle projects, sanctioned before the pandemic, come on stream alongside higher production from the United States and Brazil and an unwinding of earlier OPEC+ cuts. On that basis Goldman advises clients that oil prices are likely to move lower in the coming year and that short positions in crude remain justified.
Both banks, however, see 2026 as the final year of the current supply bulge. JP Morgan and Goldman expect the market to begin to rebalance in 2027 as the wave of new projects subsides and several years of underinvestment start to restrain non-OPEC production growth. In Goldman’s central case, prices are projected to recover towards the end of the decade, with Brent returning to around $80 by late 2028 if demand continues to rise and no major new supply projects are sanctioned.
Geopolitics is adding another layer of uncertainty. Brent’s recent moves have been closely tied to reports from peace talks between the United States and Ukraine in Geneva. Washington and Kyiv said this week that they had agreed to continue intensive work on an “updated” and “refined” peace framework, after what both sides described as productive discussions. Market participants are assessing whether a settlement between Ukraine and Russia could, over time, pave the way for a partial easing of sanctions and other restrictions on Russian oil exports.
For the moment, sanctions and self-sanctioning continue to limit Russian supplies into Europe, with Moscow redirecting more crude and products towards Asian buyers. Analysts note that any durable peace agreement which leads to reduced sanctions could increase available supply and further weigh on prices, although the scale and timing would depend on the terms of any deal and on decisions in Washington, Brussels and other capitals. Reports that Ukraine has broadly accepted the outline of a possible framework have already triggered intraday declines in crude, as traders consider the potential for additional Russian volumes to reach the market.
Despite JP Morgan’s reference to prices in the $30s, most forecasters do not regard such levels as their central expectation. The bank itself still projects Brent in the high-$50s in 2027 under its base case, while other houses’ forecasts for 2026 and 2027 mostly cluster between the mid-$50s and low-$60s. Sub-$40 prices generally feature as stress scenarios, associated with a combination of sustained oversupply, weaker-than-expected demand or a global recession. Conversely, sharper disruptions to Russian exports or renewed OPEC+ intervention could tighten the market and lift prices above the current forward curves.
For producers, a prolonged period of $50–$60 crude would place pressure on fiscal positions in several OPEC+ states and squeeze margins for higher-cost operators, potentially leading to further spending cuts and consolidation in the sector. For importing economies, lower oil prices would ease headline inflation and reduce energy costs for households and industry. With peace negotiations under way and a large supply wave still working through the system, the main banks are treating the prospect of Brent in the $30s not as a firm forecast, but as one possible outcome in an unusually wide range of scenarios.
