Indonesia is considering purchases of Russian crude as global oil markets tighten under the pressure of Middle East conflict, disrupted shipping routes and a temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian cargoes already at sea.
The move would mark a notable shift for south-east Asia’s largest economy, which remains heavily dependent on imported energy and is now seeking to secure supply from a broader range of sources.
Jakarta is examining Russian oil as an option after Washington issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea. Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said the priority was to guarantee domestic supply, adding that any country could be considered as a source. Indonesian media cited by Reuters also reported that the government is exploring additional energy cooperation with Brunei.
US suspends sanctions on Russian oil already at sea for 30 days
The discussion comes at a moment of exceptional strain in global crude markets. Prices have risen sharply since the escalation of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, while threats to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have increased concern over the reliability of Middle Eastern exports. The US waiver was presented by Washington as a market-stabilisation measure, designed to release Russian barrels already loaded on tankers into a market facing abrupt supply risk.
For Indonesia, the pressure is immediate rather than theoretical. The country is a net oil importer and remains exposed to external price shocks. Reuters reported earlier this month that Jakarta had already decided to increase crude imports from the United States to offset some reduced Middle Eastern supply as the regional conflict deepened. That indicates that the present consideration of Russian oil is part of a broader effort to diversify supply lines rather than a stand-alone political decision.
Recent import data underline the scale of the disruption. According to Kpler figures cited by Reuters, Indonesia’s crude imports from Saudi Arabia fell from 104,000 barrels per day in February to 23,000 barrels per day in March. Reuters also reported that the tanker Pertamina Pride, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, has been stuck in the Gulf since the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. That combination of lower arrivals and transport disruption has sharpened Jakarta’s focus on supply security.
The market backdrop has also improved Russia’s commercial position. Reuters reported on 6 March that Urals crude was selling at a premium to Brent on delivery into Indian ports for the first time, driven by strong demand linked to the Middle East crisis. Other market reporting cited prices for Urals on India’s west coast at $98.93 a barrel, the highest level since Russia redirected much of its crude flow towards Asia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Reuters data showed Russian sellers had pushed Urals export prices sharply higher in early March.
That does not mean Russia’s oil sector has escaped pressure. Reuters reported on 13 March that Russian exports had fallen by 14 per cent in early March from the previous month, hit by Ukrainian drone attacks on Black Sea infrastructure, thick Baltic ice and other logistical problems. But the temporary sanctions waiver gave Moscow an opening to place cargoes that might otherwise have remained stuck offshore, while higher global prices improved the value of what it could still sell.
The geopolitical implications are likely to attract attention well beyond energy markets. European governments and Ukraine have already criticised Washington’s temporary relaxation of sanctions, arguing that any move which eases Russian exports risks increasing revenue for the Kremlin at a time when the war against Ukraine continues. The Trump administration has argued that the measure concerns cargoes already loaded and is intended to calm markets rather than reset the wider sanctions regime.
For Indonesia, however, the calculation appears primarily domestic. President Prabowo Subianto’s government faces the familiar problem confronting many import-dependent economies: when prices rise and established suppliers become less reliable, flexibility becomes more important than alignment. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati has already signalled that some government spending may need to be cut if oil prices stay elevated. In that context, Russian crude is being considered not as a diplomatic gesture, but as one more available barrel in a market where access has become uncertain.
The broader significance is that the energy map in Asia is again being redrawn by conflict. If Indonesia does proceed, it will reinforce a pattern already visible in India and China: when geopolitical shocks tighten global supply, Russian oil finds new routes to market despite sanctions, price caps and diplomatic pressure. For Jakarta, the immediate question is how to keep fuel flowing. For Western capitals, the larger question is whether emergency measures intended to contain an oil shock are beginning to reopen channels that sanctions were meant to close.
